The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected that global production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, representing merely 0.8% of total aviation fuel consumption. This stark figure underscores the immense challenge the airline industry faces in achieving its net-zero emissions ambitions.
Current SAF Production and Spending
IATA estimates that airlines will spend around $4.3 billion on SAF this year, despite production levels remaining far below what is necessary to meet long-term decarbonisation targets. Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General, expressed disappointment, stating, "It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production. Five years after committing to achieve net zero by 2050, SAF production will only account for 0.8% of airline fuel use this year. The path to meeting 65% of our needs in 2050 is growing more difficult with each year of ineffectively sequenced government policies and oil companies' manifest lack of interest."
Energy Crisis and Policy Gaps
Walsh noted that the current energy crisis should accelerate investment in renewable fuels, but policy support remains insufficient. "The current energy shock should add even more urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF. But we have yet to see either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency to mitigate climate change materialize in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market," he added.
Four Key Priorities for Accelerating SAF Production
According to IATA, accelerating SAF production requires coordinated action across four key priorities:
- Expanding renewable energy supply to ensure adequate feedstocks and clean energy for SAF production.
- Guaranteeing open access to fuel infrastructure, including pipelines, storage facilities, and airport fuel systems.
- Strengthening production incentives and investment frameworks.
- Enabling a global SAF market with commercially viable pricing.
IATA emphasised that a book-and-claim system is essential to transform the SAF market from local to global, making it accessible to airlines and SAF producers regardless of their location. A global SAF market must also be supported by harmonised standards that create enduring rules and fair competition.
Role of Electro-SAF (e-SAF)
The industry body highlighted that electro-SAF, or e-SAF, will play an increasingly important role in aviation's decarbonisation efforts. Produced through a power-to-liquid process using renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water, and carbon dioxide, e-SAF is considered a key long-term solution for reducing aviation emissions.
However, IATA warned that production capacity remains far behind policy ambitions. The European Union and the United Kingdom have mandated e-SAF production of around 0.6 million tonnes by 2030, but global operating and under-construction capacity currently stands at just 0.02 million tonnes, with only one production facility in operation. According to IATA, approximately 20 commercial-scale refineries would be required to meet the mandated volumes, yet no new final investment decisions for e-SAF projects have been announced over the past year.
Criticism of EU and UK Targets
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, criticised the targets: "The 2030 e-SAF targets by the UK and the EU are beyond unrealistic - they are utterly detached from reality. It is a reckless energy market creation strategy to impose mandates before production is enabled. Such a strategy will only drive up the price. Coupled with penalties, it diverts scarce resources from being allocated to actual CO2 emissions reductions." She added, "The strategy is also bewildering given that Europe has the highest renewable energy prices in the world. A serious strategy would first scale renewable energy production to drive its price down and build the e-SAF production capacity on sound economics. Only at that point can mandates achieve the desired results."
Passenger Support for Decarbonisation
IATA's latest passenger survey, conducted in April 2026, showed strong support for aviation decarbonisation efforts. The survey found that 89% of passengers believe the aviation industry should continue reducing emissions even if governments scale back their climate initiatives. A similar proportion said air travel remains essential and should be made sustainable rather than restricted.
Approximately 66% of passengers are willing to pay more to offset emissions, while nearly 88% expect ticket prices to rise due to sustainability investments. Passengers showed a preference for direct decarbonisation measures, with 25% favouring directing funds towards SAF development and 23% supporting emissions-reduction technologies, compared with just 10% who preferred environmental taxes.
Sustainability is also increasingly influencing consumer choices. Nearly half of travellers said they consider carbon emissions when selecting flights, and among those who do, more than 85% said emissions data affects their decisions.
