Black Friday Evolves: From Midnight Madness to Strategic Shopping
The traditional American Black Friday shopping frenzy has transformed significantly. While the era of Americans abandoning Thanksgiving dinners for midnight mall queues has faded, Black Friday continues to draw more in-store shoppers than any other day of the year, firmly maintaining its status as the unofficial start of the US holiday shopping season.
Economic Headwinds Meet Resilient Consumers
This year's shopping kickoff arrived amid challenging economic conditions. According to The Conference Board, US consumer confidence slipped following the federal government shutdown, weak hiring patterns, and stubborn inflation. Retail executives note that shoppers have become increasingly selective and deal-focused, even as they continue spending during major seasonal shopping events.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, observed this paradox ahead of Black Friday: "Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us."
Inside the Black Friday Experience
At Macy's Herald Square in New York City, early-morning crowds searched for significant discounts when doors opened at 6 a.m. Footwear emerged as one of the busiest sections, with prices marked down by 40-50%. However, unlike previous years, the shopping atmosphere remained notably calm and organized.
The shopping stories from the floor revealed diverse consumer strategies. Veronica Nam, 68, purchased Nike sneakers for her husband and spent $256 on Lacoste bedding she estimated was half-price. She explained she would wait until after Christmas to buy gifts for other relatives, citing fluctuating tariffs under President Donald Trump and several years of elevated prices. "Food is very expensive," she noted, highlighting ongoing budget concerns.
Nearby, 19-year-old Nicholas Menasche shopped with his mother before heading to Best Buy for video games. The banking intern planned to spend around $1,200 this holiday season—roughly the same as last year. "I'm here to buy stuff. Shoes and clothes," he said. "It's a great tradition. The stores are open really early."
Retailers Navigate Economic Challenges
Retailers spent spring and summer preparing for this shopping season by navigating tariff unpredictability. Many shifted shipments ahead of import taxes and absorbed some costs to avoid raising prices for consumers. However, data from Circana revealed that 40% of general merchandise in September saw price hikes of at least 5% versus early 2025.
The toy industry faced particular pressure, with 83% of toys experiencing at least a 5% price increase. This sector remains vulnerable since nearly 80% of US toy sales involve items manufactured in China—products hit with steep Trump-era tariffs. Housewares, baby products, and sports gear were also significantly affected by price increases.
Strong Momentum Despite Economic Concerns
Despite these challenges, malls and analysts reported strong momentum heading into Black Friday. At Minnesota's Mall of America, foot traffic has exceeded 2019 pre-pandemic levels in recent weeks, according to Jill Renslow, the mall's chief business development and marketing officer.
"We're seeing a very positive start to the holiday season," Renslow said. "The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong."
Online spending also showed robust growth. Between November 1 and November 23, consumers spent $79.7 billion, Adobe Analytics reported—representing a 7.5% increase from a year earlier and exceeding the company's 5.3% forecast.
Mastercard SpendingPulse projects holiday sales from November 1 to December 24 will rise 3.6%, compared with last year's 4.1% growth. Michelle Meyer, Mastercard Chief Economist, summarized the consumer sentiment: "Clearly, there's uncertainty. Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn't seem like it's changing how they are showing up for this season."
The 2023 holiday shopping season thus presents a complex picture of American consumer behavior—caution mixed with continued spending, economic concerns balanced against traditional shopping enthusiasm, and a retail landscape adapting to new consumer priorities while maintaining time-honored shopping traditions.
