The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) officially commenced the 2025–2026 tax filing season on Monday, January 26, marking the start of a critical period for millions of taxpayers across the United States. This annual event typically brings anticipation for refunds, but this year, it is overshadowed by significant concerns over potential delays due to a partial government shutdown that began on Saturday.
Government Shutdown Sparks Refund Worries
The shutdown occurred as the US government awaits House approval of a funding agreement negotiated by President Donald Trump with Democrats. This political impasse follows nationwide outrage over the killing of US citizen Alex Pretti in Minneapolis by Border Patrol agents, adding a layer of urgency to the situation. For many households, tax refunds represent the largest single payment they receive annually, making any disruption a serious financial concern.
Refund Amounts and Projections
Last year, the IRS reported that the average tax refund was nearly $3,200, providing a substantial financial boost to recipients. This year, expectations are even higher. A recent analysis by financial services firm Piper Sandler suggests that the typical refund may increase by approximately $1,000, potentially bringing the average to around $4,200. However, actual refund amounts will vary based on individual circumstances and the impact of Republicans' "big, beautiful" tax and spending legislation, as noted by CBS News.
Impact of Shutdown on Refund Processing
Tax refunds can be significantly affected by a full or partial government shutdown. According to the IRS's guidance from the 2025 shutdown, if a funding lapse forces the agency to scale back services, refunds are typically not issued during that period. An exception previously applied to individual taxpayers who filed error-free 1040 forms electronically, which could be processed automatically and paid through direct deposit.
During the 2025 shutdown, which lasted from October 1 to November 14, the IRS suspended most of its core operations despite expectations that existing funding would sustain the agency through the impasse. Within the first week, roughly half of IRS employees were furloughed, and services were scaled back after the agency exhausted its available funds, highlighting the potential for similar disruptions this year.
Tax Filing Deadline Remains Unchanged
Despite the shutdown, the April 15 tax filing deadline remains unchanged unless the IRS explicitly announces otherwise. During last year's shutdown, the IRS emphasized that "all tax deadlines remain in effect, including those covering individuals, corporations, partnerships, and employers," ensuring taxpayers must still meet their obligations on time.
How to Track Your Refund Online
Taxpayers can monitor the status of their refund using the IRS "Where's My Refund?" tool available on IRS.gov or through the IRS2Go mobile app. To access this service, you will need to provide your Social Security number or Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN), your filing status, and the exact refund amount listed on your tax return. After submitting these details, you can check for updates on your refund status.
The refund tracker typically displays one of three updates:
- "Return received" indicates that the IRS has successfully received your tax return.
- "Refund approved" means your return has been processed and your refund is scheduled for payment.
- "Refund sent" confirms that the IRS has issued the refund, though it may take a few additional days for your bank to post the deposit to your account.
As the tax season progresses, taxpayers are advised to stay informed about any developments related to the government shutdown and its potential effects on refund timelines, ensuring they can plan their finances accordingly during this uncertain period.
