In a significant shift of strategy, centrist Democrats in the United States are showing a markedly reduced appetite for using a government shutdown as political leverage. This change comes in the wake of the painful 43-day funding lapse that ended in November, which they believe inflicted excessive damage on the very American households they aim to protect.
The Human Toll of the Last Shutdown
Lawmakers have returned to Washington facing a familiar deadline: reaching a deal to fund the federal government before the current short-term funding law expires at the end of January. The memory of the recent shutdown, however, looms large. Senator Jacky Rosen, a Democrat from Nevada, broke ranks with her party to help Republicans end the record-long impasse. She cited the "unimaginable pain and suffering on working people," including lost food aid and disrupted air travel crucial to her state's tourism.
A particularly tragic episode weighed heavily on her decision: the suicide of a 44-year-old woman about to start work at Nevada's Creech Air Force Base. Furloughed and unable to find other work, with her husband—a government contractor—searching for a second job, she expressed in a late-October suicide note that she did not want to be a financial burden. "Our actions have consequences for real people," Senator Rosen stated in an interview, highlighting the human cost of political standoffs.
A Changed Political Calculus
During the previous shutdown, Senate Democrats used the funding lapse as leverage to try to force Republicans to fund enhanced subsidies for the Affordable Care Act (ACA). While the gambit did not succeed, it allowed Democrats to position themselves as defenders of Americans' healthcare. Now, the political calculus appears different.
Many within the party have expressed discomfort with triggering another shutdown. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told ABC that the country was not headed toward another shutdown, noting that funding the government and extending ACA subsidies were on separate negotiating tracks. Senators like Jack Reed (D., R.I.) and Angus King (I., Vt.) have also indicated a shutdown is unlikely.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that extending the enhanced ACA benefits for three years, as Democrats have proposed, would add $83 billion to the federal deficit. Some Republican centrists, fearing electoral consequences, have urged their leaders to allow a vote on at least a one-year extension.
Obstacles and Lingering Frustrations
Despite the general reluctance, the path to smooth funding is not guaranteed. Congress must still enact the remainder of the full-year fiscal 2026 spending, with nine of the twelve annual appropriations bills pending. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate but need 60 votes to advance most legislation.
Recent events have sown discord. A bipartisan spending deal pushed by Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R., Maine) was derailed when the White House budget chief announced plans to break up the National Center for Atmospheric Research, based in Colorado. In response, Colorado's Democratic senators blocked the appropriations package. Subsequently, President Trump vetoed legislation related to a Colorado water project, which Senator Michael Bennet (D., Colo.) described as part of a "revenge campaign."
Furthermore, Trump's recent invasion of Venezuela and seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, done without informing congressional leaders, was called illegal and unconstitutional by Democrats, adding to the tense atmosphere.
Senator John Barrasso (R., Wyo.), the Senate Republican whip, noted the conflicting signals from a divided Democratic party. "Democrats took a lot of blame for the pain of the shutdown... But it doesn’t mean all the Democrats want to avoid that," he said.
The Progressive Pushback and Centrist Resolve
Some progressive Democrats still see spending bills as a potent form of protest. Senator Mazie Hirono (D., Hawaii) suggested that withholding votes could be a good strategy to ensure the renewal of health insurance subsidies, stating that otherwise millions might lose affordable coverage.
However, centrist Democrats like Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D., Nev.) are firmly opposed. She cited the loss of income for Las Vegas service workers, uncertainty for skilled nuclear stockpile workers, and harm to military base contractors. "We don’t need to add to more people’s troubles and concerns because we’re trying to help another set of Americans," she asserted. She was one of only three Senate Democrats who never joined the party's blockade against a stopgap bill.
As the January 31st deadline approaches, the dominant sentiment among Democrats appears to be one of caution, driven by the stark lessons of the recent past and a heightened awareness of the real-world consequences of political brinkmanship.
