US Government Shutdown Risk Escalates Amid Immigration Raid Funding Dispute
Political turmoil in the US House of Representatives over President Donald Trump's controversial immigration raids is threatening to prolong a partial government shutdown that began on Saturday. The impasse centers on a Senate-passed spending package, which was negotiated between Trump and Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, and now faces significant bipartisan opposition that could extend what was initially hoped to be a brief weekend shutdown.
Spending Bill Faces Bipartisan Revolt
Speaker Mike Johnson is navigating a complex political landscape as he attempts to clear the Senate spending package. The bill would fund most government agencies through September 30, while providing funding for the Department of Homeland Security through February 13. This arrangement preserves funding for immigration raids while allowing both parties to negotiate changes to enforcement policies.
However, the legislation faces resistance from within both political parties. Progressive Democrats have declared they will not vote for even two weeks of DHS funding unless Trump agrees to impose new limits on immigration raids. "My Progressive Caucus colleagues and I have been clear: Not another cent to ICE until we stop the chaos and the lawlessness," said caucus Chairman Greg Casar of Texas in a social media post, referring to Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Political Calculations and Compromises
Conservatives, meanwhile, worry that supporting Trump's agreement to place limits on agents' behavior would mean abandoning their core campaign promises. Democrats, aware of public outrage over the administration's immigration crackdown methods, want to prevent further incidents like those in Minneapolis where two US citizens were shot dead by masked, armed agents.
Johnson initially planned to pass the Senate bill on Monday night using an expedited procedure requiring about 70 Democratic votes to reach a two-thirds majority. However, it became clear that most Democrats would oppose the bill because it contains funding for immigration raids. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries emphasized the urgency of reform, stating on ABC's This Week: "We need a robust path toward dramatic reform. The administration can't just talk the talk. They need to walk the walk. That should begin today. Not in two weeks, today."
Changing Tactics and Political Maneuvering
Johnson will now change tactics, bringing the bill to the floor using a House rule that limits amendments and floor debate time. This rule will likely need to pass with only Republican majority votes, and conservatives are making demands in exchange for their support. The Speaker is invoking Trump to rally conservatives, stating on Fox News Sunday: "The president is leading this; it's his play call to do it this way."
To pass the bill, Johnson will need to cobble together a bipartisan coalition of moderates in each party by focusing on support for defense spending and reversing cuts to research by Elon Musk's "efficiency" effort. Speaking on NBC's Meet the Press, Johnson sought to win over more Democrats by saying he sees a "path" to changing immigration enforcement policies, including requiring body cameras for officers and ending roving raids. However, he rebuffed key demands to require judicial warrants to arrest migrants and to unmask officers, whom he said are at risk if their identities were known.
Shutdown Impacts and Political Consequences
The government shutdown that began at midnight early Saturday affects multiple departments including Defense, Homeland Security, Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, Treasury, and Housing and Urban Development, along with smaller agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission. Most federal workers have been ordered to report to work Monday to begin shutdown procedures.
The Labor Department announced Monday that its closely watched jobs report, due Friday, will be delayed. The tax filing season, which kicked off last week, could be hampered. Government contractors' pay and service delays would spread the longer the funding lapse continues, with non-essential government workers facing furloughs.
Historically, shutdowns have created political advantages. Democrats tried and failed to use last fall's 43-day shutdown to get the GOP to extend expiring Obamacare subsidies, making affordability a winning issue for them. A prolonged shutdown could similarly advantage Democrats ahead of the fall midterms if the last stoppage serves as any guide.
Senate Dynamics and Future Prospects
On the Senate side, Democratic leader Chuck Schumer moved to head off a demand by House conservatives to attach a voter ID law to the package by issuing a statement saying such a "poison pill" would prevent the revised bill from ever passing the Senate.
Johnson expects the Rules Committee to conduct an initial vote on Monday, with hopes for final passage on Tuesday. Moderate Democrat Henry Cuellar of Texas said he plans to vote for the bill with the two-week DHS spending measure and believes it will pass the House on a majority vote, though he wouldn't say if he would vote for the rule to save it from a conservative rebellion.
Johnson may get help from at least some of the seven moderate Democrats who voted for a full-year DHS bill before ICE agents killed Minnesota protester Alex Pretti. That bill received a separate vote in the House before being bundled together and sent to the Senate.
