Gold Price Prediction Today: Sell on Rise Strategy Advised Amid Weak Technical Setup
Gold prices are currently facing significant challenges in maintaining higher levels, prompting market analysts to recommend a sell-on-rise intraday strategy. According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, the precious metal is struggling to sustain above key resistance zones, indicating a bearish short-term outlook.
Current Market Scenario and Technical Analysis
Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) are trading near ₹1,54,350 after experiencing a sharp breakdown from elevated levels. The recent recovery attempts appear to be corrective in nature, with prices failing to hold above short-term resistance. The broader intraday structure remains weak following a substantial sell-off, and any rallies toward resistance are likely to attract fresh selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Detailed Technical Indicators and Setup
EMA 8 and EMA 21: The price is trading below both the 8-day and 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), confirming a bearish short-term structure. These moving averages are sloping downward, indicating sustained selling momentum. The ₹1,54,500 zone aligns with the EMA resistance cluster, making it a strong supply area where selling pressure is expected to intensify.
Bollinger Bands: Gold has bounced from the lower Bollinger band but remains below the mid-band. This suggests that the current upward move is merely a pullback within a broader bearish phase rather than a genuine reversal, highlighting continued downside risks.
Price Structure: The chart exhibits a clear breakdown followed by a lower high formation. Until the price decisively reclaims ₹1,56,500, the intraday bias remains negative, with further declines anticipated.
RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 42, reflecting weak momentum and staying below the neutral 50 mark. This supports the continuation of downside pressure, indicating that bearish forces are still dominant.
MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory despite minor flattening. The absence of a bullish crossover signals that selling pressure has not fully exhausted, suggesting potential for further declines.
Intraday Trading View and Strategy
Strategy: Sell on rise is recommended for intraday traders.
Entry Level: ₹1,54,500
Stop-Loss: Above ₹1,56,500
Targets: ₹1,52,000 and ₹1,51,000
Bias: Bearish below ₹1,54,500; reversal only above ₹1,56,500.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes, or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
