The year 2025 marked a pivotal moment for stablecoins, mirroring the explosive arrival of ChatGPT in the AI world. These payment tokens, long confined to the crypto trading sphere, are now poised for mainstream adoption, fueled in part by regulatory clarity from the US Genius Act. However, their current lead does not guarantee ultimate victory in the quest to define the future of money. As we move into 2026, market participants must grapple with at least five fundamental questions that will shape the digital currency landscape.
Are Stablecoins the Ultimate Form of Money?
Experts argue that the ideal money should possess a "No Questions Asked" (NQA) property—its value should be instantly trusted. Traditional cash and insured bank deposits have this. However, even regulated dollar stablecoins will lack federal deposit insurance and access to the Federal Reserve's emergency lending. This creates a potential vulnerability: a sudden wave of redemptions could force issuers to quickly sell their backing assets, primarily short-term US Treasuries, potentially triggering a loss of confidence and even spreading panic to the Treasury market itself.
The Contenders: CBDCs and Tokenized Bank Deposits
If stablecoins aren't perfect, what are the alternatives? The obvious candidates are fiat currencies and bank deposits, which already enjoy widespread trust. These can be digitized and programmed. While the US has ruled out a Federal Reserve digital currency, projects like China's e-CNY and Europe's digital euro (expected by 2029) keep the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) vision alive.
Simultaneously, traditional banks are fighting back. Worried that interest-bearing stablecoins will lure customers away, they are developing their own tokenized deposits. A key battleground will be infrastructure: stablecoins thrive on public blockchains like Ethereum, while CBDCs and bank tokens will likely operate in more controlled, permissioned networks favored by financial institutions for compliance and settlement efficiency.
User Adoption and the Geopolitical Dimension
The winner will ultimately be decided by users and their needs. For cross-border remittances, stablecoins promise lower fees. In high-inflation economies, dollar-pegged coins could preserve purchasing power. In developed markets, CBDCs with smart contracts could revolutionize welfare distribution—imagine food subsidies programmed to prevent spending on tobacco or alcohol.
This innovation is not occurring in a vacuum. Since Facebook's Libra (now Diem) proposal in 2019, the geopolitical stakes have been high. The US sees private dollar stablecoins as a tool of state power, extending the greenback's reach through a digital network effect. In response, China is aggressively pushing its e-CNY and has even instructed banks to pay interest on wallet holdings from January 1, 2026, to boost adoption. The contest is clear: nations are striving to ensure their currency—dollar, euro, yen, or yuan—does not become a casualty of another's technological dominance.
Looking ahead, the tokenization wave will extend far beyond payments to stocks, bonds, and funds, paving the way for a unified "Finternet." Some even speculate about coins that automatically adjust for inflation, putting monetary policy on autopilot. While Mark Zuckerberg's vision of a global currency may have been premature for this century's first half, the foundational race for digital monetary supremacy is now fully underway, with 2026 set to be a decisive chapter.
