Global brokerage Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its bullish stance on Paytm, raising revenue and EBITDA estimates on the back of continued market share gains in payments and strong growth in financial services. The brokerage stated that Paytm's valuation multiple has room to re-rate if the company sustains revenue growth of over 20 per cent.
Revenue and EBITDA Estimates Raised
Goldman Sachs increased its revenue estimates for Paytm by 2 per cent and EBITDA estimates by up to 6 per cent. The brokerage expects this momentum to continue, supported by Paytm's ability to onboard online merchants again and further expansion in its postpaid product. It noted, "We view the regulatory environment for Paytm is stable, and in our view, a potential relaunch of wallet could further aid Paytm's earnings growth."
Strong Growth Projections
The brokerage forecasts revenue growth of 24 per cent year-on-year for Paytm in FY27, compared with 22 per cent growth in FY26. It also expects EBITDA to more than double over the period, with EBITDA growing at a compound annual growth rate of more than 50 per cent between FY26 and FY30. Goldman Sachs noted that Paytm currently trades at 40 times FY28 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is around the midpoint of its India internet coverage universe. It believes the stock's valuation could see further re-rating if the company sustains revenue growth with EBITDA margin reaching management guidance of 15–20 per cent in the next two to three years.
UPI Market Share Gains
Data from NPCI indicates that Paytm's UPI market share by value improved to 6.7 per cent in April and May 2026, compared with 6.5 per cent in the quarter ending March 2026 and 5.5 per cent a year earlier. This consistent increase underscores Paytm's strengthening position in the digital payments space.
EBITDA and Margin Forecasts
Goldman Sachs forecasts EBITDA of Rs 1.7 billion for Paytm in the first quarter of FY27, compared with Rs 1.3 billion in the fourth quarter. The improvement is expected to be driven by a higher contribution from financial services, growth in higher-margin payment products, and operating leverage. The brokerage expects Paytm's EBITDA margin to rise to 7.1 per cent in the first quarter of FY27 from 5.8 per cent in the previous quarter. For FY27, it forecasts an EBITDA margin of 10 per cent, representing an expansion of around 400 basis points compared with FY26.
Long-Term Margin Guidance
Goldman Sachs said it believes Paytm remains on track to achieve its guidance of 15–20 per cent EBITDA margin within the next 2.5 to 3 years, with projected margins of 15 per cent in FY28, 18 per cent in FY29, and 20 per cent in FY30 end. It also expects net income of Rs 1.8 billion in the first quarter of FY27, up 13 per cent sequentially and 32 per cent higher year-on-year.
The share price of One 97 Communications (Paytm) closed at Rs 1,133 per share with a gain of 0.72 per cent on Monday.
