IMF Maintains Critical Stance on India's Economic Data Quality
The International Monetary Fund has maintained its critical assessment of India's official economic statistics, retaining a C-grade rating for the country's national account data in its 2025 annual staff report. This evaluation comes despite India's recent announcement of surprisingly strong GDP growth figures that showed the economy expanding at 8.2% during the July-September quarter.
The IMF's rating indicates that India's GDP data contains some shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance of the country's economic performance. This assessment forms part of the multilateral agency's mandatory annual bilateral discussions with member countries under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement.
Understanding the IMF's Data Adequacy Assessment
The IMF's current four-tier rating system, implemented only in 2024, categorizes data quality from A to D. An A rating signifies data adequate for surveillance, while B indicates data with some shortcomings but broadly adequate. The C grade given to India's national accounts suggests more significant issues that affect monitoring, while D represents serious shortcomings that significantly hamper surveillance.
While India's national accounts received a C rating, the country's overall data assessment remained at B level due to better ratings in other categories including prices, government finance statistics, external sector statistics, and monetary statistics.
The report acknowledged the Indian government's ongoing efforts to update key macroeconomic indicators but emphasized the need for regular revisions according to international best practices. Specific recommendations included conducting the population census on priority basis and providing timely consolidated general government fiscal accounts.
Historical Context of IMF's Assessment
The IMF's concerns about India's economic data aren't new. Back in 2023, before the current grading system was implemented, the Fund had described India's GDP series with 2011-12 as base year as outdated and in need of rebasing as soon as feasible.
This marks a significant shift from earlier assessments. In 2016, the IMF had evaluated India's data as adequate for surveillance, while in 2023, it described the data as broadly adequate. The downgrade to current ratings follows years of the agency pointing out specific deficiencies in India's statistical methodology.
One persistent criticism has been India's use of the Wholesale Price Index rather than a Producer Price Index to deflate many economic activities when calculating real GDP from nominal GDP. The IMF had also expressed concerns in 2015 about large revisions to historical series and major discrepancies between different GDP calculation methods.
Government Response and Upcoming Changes
The Indian government has responded to these criticisms by emphasizing its ongoing work to improve official statistics. Authorities argued that more favorable ratings would be warranted given the improvements underway, particularly for national accounts coverage and granularity.
Significant changes are indeed imminent. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is preparing to launch a new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year in February 2026. This overhaul represents one of the most substantial updates to India's statistical framework in recent years.
The first quarterly number under the new GDP series will be released on February 27, 2026, coinciding with the publication of data for October-December 2025 and the second advance estimate for 2025-26 as a whole. The new series is expected to incorporate methodological changes and new data sources that could address some of the IMF's concerns.
Comprehensive Statistical Overhaul Underway
Beyond the GDP revisions, India is undertaking a broader statistical modernization program. Days before the new GDP data release, on February 12, 2026, India will publish the first CPI inflation number under an updated series based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2023-24.
This will replace the current CPI series that relies on the 2011-12 survey data. Additional updates include a revised Index of Industrial Production using 2022-23 as the base year and the Reserve Bank of India's plan to release Balance of Payments data monthly instead of quarterly.
The timing of the IMF's critical assessment, coming just months before these significant improvements, highlights the tension between India's recent strong growth performance and international concerns about how that growth is measured and reported.
As India prepares to launch its revamped statistical framework in early 2026, all eyes will be on whether these changes will satisfy international standards and improve the country's data credibility on the global stage.
