A new report from SBI Research has projected that India's Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) (FCNR(B)) deposits could reach USD 80-85 billion overall, with USD 65-70 billion expected to be mobilized by the end of the current scheme. The report highlights that the total amount raised in just 45 days has already surpassed the entire amount mobilized during a three-month period in 2013.
Key Findings from SBI Research
According to the SBI Research report, the strong inflow trend suggests that India may receive FCNR(B) deposits in the range of USD 65-70 billion by the conclusion of the scheme and USD 80-85 billion in total. The report states: "Given the current trend we believe that total amount mobilized so far in 45 days has easily crossed the total amount mobilized in 2013 in 3 months!"
Role of Public Sector Banks
The report identifies public sector banks as the primary drivers of this mobilization. Data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows that FCNR(B) deposits worth USD 17.41 billion were mobilized as of July 17, 2026. Total deposit inflows reached USD 20.72 billion by that date, including USD 1.97 billion from Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) and USD 1.34 billion from External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs).
Revised Forecast and Renewal of Existing Deposits
Based on current trends, SBI Research expects total FCNR deposits to reach USD 26-28 billion by July 23 alone. The research team has revised its total FCNR forecast at the end of the scheme upward to USD 65-70 billion from an earlier estimate of USD 40-45 billion, reflecting stronger-than-expected inflows. The report also notes that a significant portion of existing FCNR deposits maturing in August and September 2026 are likely to be renewed under the new scheme due to higher interest rates, further boosting inflows. The report adds: "We also believe that significant majority of existing FCNR deposits which are going to mature in Aug/ Sep'26 will be renewed under the new scheme (gravitated by higher interest rates) and will boost the FCNR (B) inflows."
Impact on Foreign Currency Assets
Foreign Currency Assets (FCA) have increased by USD 7.6 billion from June 8 to July 17. Meanwhile, FCNR(B) deposit mobilization stood at USD 17.4 billion, indicating that the exchange process at the RBI by banks is happening gradually, accounting for roughly 44% of the total amount. The report projects that for the next 15 days (July 17 to July 31), FCA inflows could reach USD 10-12 billion based on current trends. This would bring the overall FCA growth to USD 17-20 billion by end of July, buoyed primarily by FCNR(B) inflows. The report states: "The next reporting for FCA for July is for week ended July 24 and week ended July 31 and we expect for the next 15 days period (17 Jul-31 Jul) FCA inflows could touch USD 10-12 billion based on current trends."
Additional Inflows from Economies with Tax Concessions
The report also estimates that around USD 10 billion on a conservative basis, in addition to baseline estimates, will be mobilized mostly from economies where tax concessions are available. The report says: "Our preliminary estimate indicate that amount worth USD 10 billion on a conservative basis in addition to base line estimates are going to be mobilized mostly through those economies where tax concessions are available."
Conclusion
The SBI Research report underscores the robust inflow of FCNR(B) deposits, driven by attractive interest rates and the renewal of existing deposits. With revised projections significantly higher than initial estimates, India's foreign currency reserves stand to benefit substantially from this trend.
