India's Steel Export Surge Driven by Import Squeeze, Not Demand Boom
India transformed into a net exporter of finished steel during the April-December 2025 period. This significant shift occurred primarily because government restrictions dramatically reduced imports. At the same time, exports increased due to weak domestic prices and surplus supply.
Policy Measures Drive Import Decline
The Ministry of Steel reported that India exported 4.79 million tonnes of finished steel during these nine months. This represents a substantial 33% increase from the 3.60 million tonnes exported during the same period last year.
Imports fell even more sharply, dropping 37% to 4.65 million tonnes from 7.42 million tonnes. This dramatic reduction in imports narrowed the gap between inbound and outbound shipments, allowing India to achieve net exporter status.
Experts emphasize that this turnaround resulted from policy actions rather than market demand. Dhruv Goel, CEO of commodities intelligence firm BigMint, explained the situation clearly. "The current data shows a near balance between imports and exports," he said. "But this balance comes more from restricted imports than from demand-driven export growth. The sustainability of this situation remains uncertain."
Safeguard Duties and Quality Controls
The government implemented several measures to reduce steel imports. On December 30, authorities imposed a staggered safeguard duty on select steel products. This duty started at 12% in the first year, will decrease to 11.5% in the second year, and drop to 11% in the third year.
The duty specifically targets imports priced below certain thresholds. It covers important flat steel products including:
- Hot-rolled coils and plates
- Cold-rolled coils
- Metallic-coated steel
- Colour-coated steel
This three-year duty replaces a temporary 12% safeguard duty imposed for 200 days in April 2025. Quality control orders also played a crucial role. Vietnamese mills, which were key suppliers to Indian traders, lost their mandatory Indian quality certifications. This development further reduced import volumes.
Domestic Price Pressures and Export Push
Despite these import restrictions, domestic steel prices remained weak throughout the period. Oversupply and softer demand created significant pressure on prices. Steel consumption grew only 6.8% during April-December 2025, nearly half the 11% growth recorded a year earlier.
Production, however, increased by 10% during this period, compared with just 4% growth in April-December 2024. This production surge contributed to the oversupply situation.
Price movements tell a clear story. In April 2025, hot-rolled coil prices stood around ₹52,000 per tonne. By November, prices had slid to a 10-month low of about ₹47,100 per tonne. These domestic prices remained cheaper than imported Chinese and Japanese steel throughout the period.
Lower domestic prices and surplus supply pushed Indian producers to seek overseas markets. This export push occurred despite weak global demand. Goel noted that shipments to Vietnam increased after that country imposed duties on Chinese steel.
Export Destinations and Future Outlook
Europe remained India's largest export destination during April-November 2025, accounting for over 40% of shipments. Italy, Spain and Belgium together imported 1.71 million tonnes of India's 4.18 million tonnes of steel exports during this eight-month period.
Steelmakers announced price hikes in January following the imposition of the three-year duty. Hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil prices increased by 2-4%, while rebar prices rose 3-6%. Despite these increases, domestic prices continued to trade at a discount to imports.
On January 13, 2026, benchmark HRC prices stood at ₹51,500 per tonne. This compared favorably with a landed cost of ₹56,125 per tonne for Chinese steel.
Looking ahead, export prospects face uncertainty. Goel warned about several challenges. "India's export outlook remains heavily tied to Europe," he explained. "Any tightening of quotas or carbon-related rules there could quickly reduce our export volumes."
He emphasized the medium-term requirements for continued growth. "Export expansion will depend on India's ability to improve cost competitiveness," Goel said. "We must also address carbon-related barriers in global markets to maintain our position."
The government's policy measures have clearly reshaped India's steel trade dynamics. However, the sustainability of this export surge depends on multiple factors beyond import restrictions alone.
