Despite a weakening rupee and foreign investor outflows, India's key stock indices have shown remarkable resilience in 2025. However, expert analysis suggests this could be the precursor to a significant bull run, especially if a pending trade deal with the United States is finalized. Technical charts are pointing to strong buying opportunities for long-term investors.
Market Context: Rupee Pressure vs. Index Strength
The Indian Rupee (INR) has depreciated by nearly 6% year-to-date (YTD) against the US Dollar, a move partly attributed to delays in the India-US trade deal. This currency weakness has failed to attract Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who have remained net sellers since July 2025.
In contrast, the equity markets have marched higher. The Nifty 50 index has gained close to 9% YTD, while the BSE Sensex has surged nearly 8%. The banking sector has outperformed, with the Bank Nifty index rallying over 15.50% in the same period. Market participants are optimistic that positive hints from both governments could seal the trade deal soon, potentially igniting a fresh bullish trend on Dalal Street.
Technical Outlook: Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Targets
Dharmesh Shah, Vice President at ICICI Securities, maintains a robust long-term bullish stance on the Indian market. He emphasizes focusing on stocks that exhibit strength on technical charts.
Shah notes that the Nifty 50 is currently hovering around its 52-day exponential moving average (DEMA), a zone that has historically signaled good buying opportunities. "On the weekly chart, historically, a rebound from 52-DEMA has always been a good omen for value buying," he stated.
His analysis, based on monthly chart patterns, sets a target of 30,000 for the Nifty 50 by Calendar Year 2026 (CY26). This projection is derived from the implied target of a Cup & Handle pattern, the upper band of a rising channel, and the historical performance following bull market corrections. For the long term, Shah believes the Nifty 50 could touch 50,000 by 2030.
For the Bank Nifty, Shah expects the index to accelerate towards 67,000 by CY26. He points out that the index is nearly 5% below its 52-week DEMA, a level that has previously triggered strong value buying in banking stocks, leading to median gains of around 28% in the subsequent 7-10 months.
Seven Long-Term Stock Picks from ICICI Securities
To capitalize on the anticipated rally, Dharmesh Shah recommends seven stocks for long-term investment portfolios. The list includes companies from financial services, energy, IT, chemicals, and automotive sectors.
The recommended stocks with their buy range, target, and support levels are:
- Bajaj Finserv: Buy between ₹1,960 to ₹2,090. Target: ₹2,400. Support: ₹1,870.
- Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL): Buy between ₹155 to ₹165. Target: ₹190. Support: ₹143.
- LTIMindtree: Buy between ₹5,950 to ₹6,380. Target: ₹7,370. Support: ₹5,500.
- Pidilite Industries: Buy between ₹1,400 to ₹1,780. Target: ₹1,720. Support: ₹1,310.
- SRF: Buy between ₹2,820 to ₹2,970. Target: ₹3,480. Support: ₹2,548.
- Can Fin Homes: Buy between ₹875 to ₹930. Target: ₹1,110. Support: ₹790.
- Jamna Auto Industries: Buy between ₹119 to ₹128. Target: ₹152. Support: ₹103.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations are those of the individual analyst and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
