The Indian stock market maintained a measured and cautious trading pattern on Thursday, reflecting a broader risk-off sentiment in global markets. While the finalization of the India–European Union Free Trade Agreement provided some positive momentum, sustained selling pressure from foreign portfolio investors and muted third-quarter corporate earnings growth limited significant gains in domestic equities.
Global Uncertainties and Domestic Focus
Market participants remained selective and largely range-bound as global uncertainties persisted, particularly influenced by recent tariff measures announced by former US President Donald Trump. Attention has now shifted decisively to the upcoming Union Budget, with investors closely monitoring cues related to taxation clarity, fiscal discipline, and the government’s capital-expenditure roadmap. These factors are expected to play a crucial role in shaping near-term market direction and investor confidence.
Technical Outlook from Vaishali Parekh
Vaishali Parekh, Vice President of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, noted that market sentiment remains highly cautious despite the Nifty 50 index briefly slipping below the psychological 25,000 mark before recovering to close above the 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA) at 25,100.
Nifty 50 Analysis
"The Nifty 50 index witnessed a highly volatile session on the expiry day of the futures and options segment, making a low near the 24,950 zone before recovering in the final hours to close above the important 200-period moving average at 25,175," Parekh explained. "The overall bias and sentiment are maintained with a very cautious approach, with psychological support near the long-term trendline zone at 25,000. On the upside, a decisive breach above the 25,500 level is necessary to establish conviction and clarity for market bulls."
Bank Nifty Analysis
Regarding the Bank Nifty, Parekh stated, "The Bank Nifty index, amid fluctuations, indicated a strong green candle with a sharp recovery to move past the important 50-day exponential moving average at the 59,000 zone, closing in the green near 59,200. This has relieved sentiment to some extent. The index would have near-term support at the 58,300 trendline zone, with major support near the 200-period moving average at 56,600. On the upside, it would need a decisive move past the 100-period moving average at the 59,500 zone to expect stability and conviction for the coming days."
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Parekh identified immediate support for the Nifty 50 index at 25,000, with resistance at 25,400. For the Bank Nifty, she projected a daily trading range between 58,700 and 59,800, suggesting continued volatility in the banking sector.
Intraday Stock Recommendations
Vaishali Parekh recommended three stocks for intraday trading, providing specific entry points, targets, and stop-loss levels:
- CUB: Buy at ₹284.25, target ₹300, stop loss ₹278.
- Paras Defence: Buy at ₹645.55, target ₹675, stop loss ₹632.
- NMDC: Buy at ₹78.84, target ₹85, stop loss ₹76.50.
India-EU Free Trade Agreement Impact
Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a historic trade deal with the European Union on Tuesday, January 27, describing it as the "mother of all deals." This landmark free trade agreement, finalized after nearly two decades of intermittent negotiations, comes at a critical time as the global economy grapples with protectionist tariff policies. The agreement will enable India to gradually open its large and tightly regulated market to free trade with the 27-member EU, its largest trading partner, potentially boosting long-term economic growth and investor sentiment.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
