The Indian stock market is gearing up for a positive start on Thursday, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 expected to open higher. This optimistic outlook is driven by a rally in global markets and signs of cooling geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning Greenland. US President Donald Trump announced that he has reached a framework of a deal on Greenland and has withdrawn threats to impose tariffs on European countries, boosting investor sentiment worldwide.
Market Indicators Point to Gap-Up Opening
The trends on Gift Nifty, a key indicator for the Indian market, suggest a gap-up opening for the benchmark indices. Gift Nifty was trading around the 25,362 level, representing a premium of nearly 184 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. This strong performance follows a volatile session on Wednesday, where the Indian stock market ended lower. The benchmark Nifty closed below the 25,200 level, with the Sensex dropping 270.84 points, or 0.33%, to settle at 81,909.63, and the Nifty 50 declining 75.00 points, or 0.30%, to close at 25,157.50.
Sensex Technical Analysis and Predictions
On the daily charts, Sensex formed a long-legged Doji candlestick pattern, indicating indecisiveness between bullish and bearish forces. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, advises that given the intraday market volatility, level-based trading would be an ideal strategy for day traders. He identifies key support zones at 81,700 and 81,500, while resistance levels are seen at 82,600 and 83,000. Chouhan cautions that if Sensex falls below 81,500, sentiment could shift, prompting traders to exit long positions.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst at Share.Market (PhonePe Wealth), notes that the technical structure remains weak as Sensex continues to trade below its short-term moving averages. He highlights the 81,100 zone as a primary demand area, with a breach below potentially leading to a slide toward 80,500. Heavy Call Open Interest (OI) at 82,500 indicates that traders are capping the upside for now. Jain identifies immediate support for Sensex at 81,000 – 81,100 levels and immediate resistance at 82,500 – 82,600.
Nifty 50 Outlook and Key Levels
The Nifty 50 index has formed a doji candle with wicks on both sides, reflecting indecision and a lack of clear control by either bulls or bears. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, explains that a small green candle with long upper and lower shadows indicates ongoing volatility. He notes that the underlying trend remains weak, with Nifty 50 struggling to sustain above the crucial support of 25,150 levels (200-day EMA). Further weakness below 24,900 could drag Nifty 50 down to 24,500 in the near term, while a sustainable upmove above 25,200 may trigger a short-term bounce back.
Nilesh Jain, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst at Centrum Broking Ltd., points out that the Relative Strength Index has entered deeply oversold territory at 28, suggesting potential for a short-term pullback. However, the broader trend remains weak as long as Nifty 50 trades below its 100-DMA at 25,580. Key immediate supports are at 25,120 and 25,000, with the India VIX rising by 7% to close at 13.60, indicating increased market uncertainty.
Nifty OI Data Insights
The 25,000 mark is a vital psychological base for Nifty 50, with the highest Put OI concentrated at this level, significantly increasing its technical importance. Aggressive Call writing at the 25,500 strike suggests that this level will act as a major barrier to any upward momentum, as noted by analysts.
Bank Nifty Prediction and Technical Structure
Bank Nifty ended the session 603.90 points, or 1.02%, lower at 58,800.30 on Wednesday, forming a clear lower-high, lower-low structure on intraday charts. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, highlights that the index consolidated between 58,800 – 59,000, indicating persistent supply at higher levels. The broader technical structure remains bearish, with upside restricted unless the index decisively regains 59,200 – 59,300. Failure to hold current levels may expose the index to further downside in the near term.
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, notes that Bank Nifty slipped below its 50-day EMA of 59,040. Momentum indicators continue to weaken, with the RSI in a declining mode and hovering near the 40 level. Additionally, DI- crossing below DI+ suggests that bearish momentum is gradually strengthening. Unless Bank Nifty decisively reclaims its 50-day EMA and the broken trendline, the probability of a strong pullback remains limited. Shah identifies the 100-Day EMA zone of 58,200 - 58,100 as immediate support, with any sustained move below 58,100 potentially leading to a further down move toward 57,800. On the upside, the zone of 59,100 - 59,200 will act as immediate resistance.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided above are those of individual analysts or broking companies and not of Mint. Investors are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
