Indian Stock Market Set for Bullish Start on Trade Deal and Global Optimism
The Indian stock market is poised to open on a strong positive note, driven by the landmark India-US trade deal and encouraging global market signals. This upbeat sentiment is further supported by a significant improvement in domestic economic fundamentals and a notable reduction in external uncertainties that have previously weighed on investor confidence.
Key Drivers Behind the Market Momentum
The recently finalized India–US trade agreement has successfully removed a major overhang that had been clouding market outlooks. This development has not only enhanced export visibility for Indian businesses but has also sparked a renewed wave of interest from foreign institutional investors, who are now returning to Dalal Street with increased vigor.
Adding to the stability, the Reserve Bank of India's decision to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral monetary policy stance continues to reinforce macroeconomic confidence. This is complemented by benign inflation projections for FY26, estimated at 2.1%, alongside a steady growth trajectory that underpins the economy's resilience.
Additional Factors Fueling Positive Sentiment
Several other elements are contributing to the constructive market environment:
- Geopolitical Calm: Easing concerns regarding a potential US–Iran conflict have reduced global risk aversion.
- Robust Domestic Inflows: Strong and consistent inflows from domestic institutional investors are providing a solid foundation for market support.
- Currency Stability: The Indian rupee has shown signs of stabilization, alleviating fears related to currency volatility.
- Budget-Led Capex: Sustained momentum in capital expenditure themes outlined in the Union Budget is driving sectoral growth.
Overall market sentiment has shifted to a cautiously optimistic tone, with participants now closely monitoring the sustainability of foreign institutional investor inflows and early indications of recovery in export-oriented sectors.
Expert Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
Vaishali Parekh, Vice President of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, characterizes the current Indian stock market sentiment as cautiously positive. She emphasizes that the Nifty 50 index has established a crucial support level at 25,500, and maintaining above 25,850 is essential for further improvement in market morale.
Nifty 50 Index Projections
Commenting on the Nifty 50's outlook, Parekh stated, "The Nifty 50 index, despite some volatility, has successfully held the critical 25,500 support zone, closing marginally higher near the 25,700 mark. The index is sustaining near the important 50-day exponential moving average, with an overall bias maintained through a cautiously positive approach."
She further elaborated, "The index finds significant support near the 200-period moving average at the 25,250 level. On the upside, a decisive breakthrough above the 26,000 threshold is necessary to establish clarity and anticipate further advances in the coming sessions."
Bank Nifty Index Forecast
Regarding the Bank Nifty, Parekh observed, "The Bank Nifty index experienced a range-bound session, oscillating near the 60,000 zone with visible consolidation, while keeping the bias intact. A decisive breach above the 60,400 level is required to trigger a fresh upward movement in the near term."
She added, "On the downside, the index has near-term support at the crucial 50-day exponential moving average around the 59,250 zone, which must be sustained to maintain the current bias. The 200-period moving average at the 57,000 zone stands as the major and critical support for the upcoming days."
Parekh identified immediate support for the Nifty 50 at 25,500, with resistance at 25,900. For the Bank Nifty, she projected a daily trading range between 59,600 and 60,800.
Today's Stock Recommendations from Vaishali Parekh
For intraday trading, Vaishali Parekh has recommended three stocks:
- LTF: Buy at ₹280, target ₹395, stop loss ₹272. The technical chart pattern indicates a near-term upside movement following a brief consolidation phase.
- Page Industries: Buy at ₹35,450, target ₹37,000, stop loss ₹34,800. The stock's technical chart is showing signs of a trend reversal.
- NCC: Buy at ₹152, target ₹170, stop loss ₹148. A strong bullish candle formation with high volume on the technical chart suggests robust upward momentum.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms and do not represent the stance of Mint. Investors are strongly advised to consult with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
