SBI Securities' Expert Stock Recommendations for the Upcoming Week
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, has identified Aster DM Healthcare and Karur Vysya Bank as the top stock picks for the trading week commencing March 30, 2026. In his latest analysis, Shah provides a detailed technical outlook on the Nifty and Bank Nifty indices, highlighting key levels and market trends amidst ongoing volatility.
Nifty View: Navigating a Fragile Market Environment
The Nifty index has experienced a turbulent month, declining over 9% in March, marking its most severe monthly drop since the pandemic-era selloff. Shah notes that market behavior has settled into a deceptive rhythm, characterized by periodic relief rallies that are quickly negated by sharp downside gaps. These short-lived recoveries have often lured traders into premature optimism, only to result in bull traps as sellers regain control.
Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East, have amplified volatility, leading to substantial capital erosion for short-term traders and leveraged positions. The market's inability to sustain rebounds reflects fragile sentiment, where even marginal news triggers outsized reactions. Additionally, interruptions in global gas supply have introduced challenges for energy-dependent sectors, raising concerns about rising input costs, margin uncertainty, and potential earnings downgrades.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty continues to trade below all key moving averages, with momentum indicators remaining bearish. Key support is identified at the 22650–22600 band; a decisive breakdown below 22600 could extend declines towards 22400 and 22200. On the upside, resistance is expected in the 23150–23200 zone, which poses a significant hurdle for any meaningful reversal.
Bank Nifty View: Underperformance and Downside Risks
Bank Nifty has emerged as one of the weakest performers among frontline indices in March, declining more than 13% month-to-date. The formation of a large bearish candle on the monthly chart indicates aggressive selling and sustained distribution at higher levels. The index's relative strength ratio against Nifty continues to trend lower, signaling persistent underperformance.
Technically, Bank Nifty is positioned approximately 8% below its 200-day EMA and 9% below its 100-day EMA, confirming a breakdown of medium and long-term support. Momentum indicators, including the daily RSI in a super-bearish regime, reinforce downside pressure. Initial support is seen at 51700–51800, with a violation potentially accelerating declines towards 51000 and 50400. Any rebounds are likely corrective, with strong resistance expected at 53400–53500.
Stock Recommendations: Detailed Analysis
Aster DM Healthcare: The stock has staged a strong rebound from its 200-day EMA, coinciding with the 613–603 support zone, indicating robust buying interest. It has moved above the midline of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting a bullish bias, while the RSI has improved from 44 to 58, signaling momentum recovery. Shah recommends accumulating the stock in the 665-670 zone with a stoploss of 645, targeting 715 in the short term.
Karur Vysya Bank: This stock has rebounded strongly from the 255–250 support zone on the daily chart, with the RSI recovering sharply from oversold levels of 29 to 58, indicating renewed bullish momentum. The DI lines on the ADX are nearing a crossover, easing selling pressure, and the pullback is supported by healthy volume increases. Shah advises accumulating in the 293-298 zone with a stoploss of 283, targeting 320 in the short term.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views are those of the expert and do not represent the views of The Times of India. Investors should exercise prudence and conduct their own research.
