Stock Market Live Updates: BSE Sensex and Nifty50 are expected to open on a positive note on Tuesday as global crude oil prices declined by more than 2% in early Asian trading. The drop followed US President Donald Trump's statement that he had temporarily paused additional military action, raising hopes for a possible diplomatic resolution that could ease tensions and restore energy movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
Market Sentiment and Key Factors
Market analysts believe the near-term trajectory remains heavily event-driven, with volatility likely to stay elevated. The combination of crude oil prices hovering around USD 106 per barrel, the rupee sliding to a fresh low of 96.2 against the US dollar, rising bond yields, and growing inflation worries is creating a difficult environment for Indian equities. Although corporate earnings and domestic economic indicators continue to show relative strength, investors are becoming increasingly uneasy about the wider impact of expensive energy on inflation, government finances, liquidity, and the Reserve Bank of India's future policy direction.
Fuel Price Hike
In a partial relief for oil marketing companies, petrol and diesel prices across the country have been hiked by around 90 paise today, marking the second hike in fuel prices after a Rs 3 per litre increase last week.
Monday's Market Recap
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty managed to close slightly in the green on Monday after recovering from steep intraday declines, aided by bargain buying in IT shares and a few heavyweight blue-chip stocks. However, gains remained limited due to the weakening rupee and rising crude oil prices amid intensifying tensions in West Asia.
The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 77.05 points, or 0.10%, higher at 75,315.04. During the day, the index had plunged as much as 1,134.78 points, or 1.50%, to touch 74,180.26. On the BSE, declining stocks significantly outnumbered advancing ones, with 3,034 shares ending lower, 1,264 gaining, and 194 remaining unchanged. The NSE Nifty 50 also finished with modest gains, rising 6.45 points, or 0.03%, to settle at 23,649.95.
Technical Outlook for Nifty
According to Bajaj Broking, the Nifty formed a bullish candle on the daily chart with a lower high and lower low and shadows on both sides, signaling consolidation amid high volatility. The index tested the lower band of the gap area of April 8 and witnessed a rebound during the intraday session. Holding above the key support area of 52,700-52,400 (Bank Nifty) or 23,200-23,000 (Nifty) could lead to a pullback towards the recent breakdown area of 54,000-54,700 or 23,800-23,900, respectively. However, the index needs to form higher highs and higher lows on a sustained basis and move above the breakdown area to signal a pause in the recent downtrend. Failure to do so may result in continued consolidation within the current range.
Rupee at Record Low
The Indian rupee extended its losses on Monday and settled at a fresh record low of 96.20 against the US dollar, weighed down by rising crude oil prices amid persistent geopolitical tensions and continued strength in the dollar. Forex market participants said investor sentiment globally remains under pressure due to ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. In the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 96.19 and later slipped to 96.39 during the session, marking a decline of 58 paise from the previous close. It settled at 96.20, down 39 paise compared with Friday's closing level of 95.81.
Expert Views
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, "Markets are likely to remain event-driven in the near term, with volatility expected to persist amid elevated crude oil prices, a weakening rupee, rising bond yields, and mounting inflationary concerns. While domestic earnings and economic activity remain relatively resilient, investors are increasingly concerned about the second-order impact of elevated energy prices on inflation, fiscal balances, liquidity conditions, and the RBI's future policy trajectory."
India's wholesale inflation surged to 8.3% YoY in April, reflecting sharp increases in fuel, power, metals, and manufactured product prices. Although headline CPI inflation remains contained at 3.5%, sustained elevated crude prices, rising transportation costs, and potential supply-side disruptions could gradually transmit into broader retail inflation over the coming quarters. Khemka added that the RBI may initially continue managing inflationary pressures through tighter liquidity conditions, but the probability of interest rate hikes or a delay in future rate cuts could increase if inflation trends continue to deteriorate.
Global Cues
Asian equities edged up on Tuesday following the decline in crude oil prices. The Nasdaq ended Monday's session in the red as investors booked profits amid rising Treasury yields and elevated crude oil prices, reviving concerns that inflation and borrowing costs could remain high for an extended period.
