Stock Market Live Updates: BSE Sensex and Nifty50 are set for a muted start on Monday, May 18, 2026, as crude oil prices touched a two-week high, intensifying concerns over inflation and macroeconomic stability. GIFT Nifty indicates a subdued opening for the benchmarks. Analysts believe the market may continue to remain under corrective pressure if the index fails to reclaim the 23,800–24,000 zone. A sustained inability to cross that range could push Nifty towards support levels of 23,200–23,000.
FPI Outflows Continue
Foreign investors have continued trimming their holdings in Indian equities, pulling out Rs 27,048 crore from the market so far this month, reflecting a cautious stance amid shifting global macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties. With the latest withdrawals, cumulative outflows by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) from Indian equities in 2026 have climbed to Rs 2.2 lakh crore, surpassing the total net outflow of Rs 1.66 lakh crore recorded during the whole of 2025, according to NSDL data.
Himanshu Srivastava, Principal - Manager Research at Morningstar Investment Research India, said the continued outflows point to lingering concerns over the global economic outlook, persistent geopolitical conflicts in several regions and sharp swings in crude oil prices, all of which have dampened investor appetite for emerging markets such as India. He noted that the strengthening of the US dollar along with elevated US Treasury yields has also contributed significantly to the selling pressure, as better returns in developed economies have made relatively safer assets more appealing and encouraged investors to take a cautious approach.
Weekly Market Outlook
Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited, commented: "Indian equities traded with a cautious and volatile undertone during last week, as the lack of meaningful de‑escalation in geopolitical tensions and their implications for crude prices, inflation, and the rupee continued to dominate market sentiment. Rising global bond yields and sustained dollar strength weighed on risk appetite, leading to intermittent FII outflows and continued currency pressure. Elevated crude prices and a record‑weak rupee intensified concerns around macro stability and policy flexibility, while supportive domestic factors such as resilient Q4 earnings and favourable valuations helped cushion downside risks. Markets also derived intermittent support from expectations of policy measures aimed at curbing imports, stabilising the rupee, and supporting capital flows, along with optimism around global diplomatic engagements. Overall, sentiment remained range‑bound, with recovery attempts constrained by persistent external uncertainties."
Investor focus has now shifted toward rising inflation risks, driven by higher‑than‑expected WPI prints, ongoing fuel price pass‑through, and elevated bond yields, alongside the potential recalibration of monetary policy stances and possible downgrades to Q1FY27 earnings. Expectations of a US rate hike later this year may further accelerate capital outflows from emerging markets. In the near term, markets will closely monitor any follow‑through announcements from the recently concluded US–China summit, which concluded with no major announcements. Concurrently, any constructive progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be critical in restoring risk appetite and providing a more durable direction to the markets.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Technical Outlook
According to Bajaj Broking, Nifty in the weekly chart formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low and a long lower shadow. Nifty during last week slipped below the last three-week almost identical lows around 23,800 and closed below the same, highlighting corrective bias. Going ahead, in the coming week, failure to move above the breakdown area of 23,800-24,000 will keep the bias corrective and can lead to testing of the support area of 23,200-23,000. While a move above the breakdown area will signal a pause in the downtrend and open a pullback towards 24,500-24,600 levels, being the high of April 2026. Volatility is expected to remain high with key focus on developments around US–Iran tensions, oil-price trajectories and quarterly corporate earnings. Nifty has key support at 23,200-23,000, being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April bullish gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (22,182-24,601).
Bank Nifty in the weekly chart formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low, signaling corrective bias as it closed below the lower band of the recent consolidation range. Bias continues to remain down below last week's breakdown area of 54,400-54,600, and a follow-through weakness will open further downside towards 52,700-52,400 levels, being the confluence of the lower band of the 8th April gap area and the 61.8% retracement of the previous pullback (49,955-57,456). On the higher side, a move above the breakdown area of 54,400-54,600 will signal resumption of the up move and will open further upside towards 56,000-56,500.
Market Cap Erosion of Top Firms
Nine out of the country's 10 most valuable companies witnessed a combined erosion of Rs 3.12 lakh crore in market capitalisation last week, with Reliance Industries suffering the steepest decline. During the week, the benchmark BSE Sensex dropped 2,090.2 points, or 2.7 per cent, while the NSE Nifty slipped 532.65 points, translating into a decline of 2.2 per cent. Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said the markets ended the week in the red after breaking below a three-week consolidation range, as investors remained concerned over ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia, continued weakness in the rupee and mounting inflation worries. He added that crude oil prices climbing beyond the $105 per barrel level further heightened concerns surrounding imported inflation, pressure on government finances and the impact on corporate profitability. Among the top-10 valued companies, Bharti Airtel was the lone stock to post gains during the week.
Global Cues and Crude Oil Impact
Crude prices extended gains on Monday after diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Israel conflict involving Iran appeared to lose momentum. Market concerns intensified following reports of an attack on a nuclear facility in the UAE, while investors awaited possible discussions by US President Donald Trump on military options involving Iran. Asian markets came under pressure, with losses at one point extending up to 1.1%, though some indices later recovered partially. The US dollar, viewed as a safe-haven asset during the Middle East tensions, retained gains after recording its strongest weekly performance since early March.
FPIs have remained net sellers in every month of 2026 except February. They had withdrawn Rs 35,962 crore in January before briefly turning buyers in February, when they infused Rs 22,615 crore into Indian equities - the strongest monthly inflow seen in the last 17 months.
Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
