The Indian stock market is expected to open with minimal gains on Wednesday, December 17, following two consecutive sessions of significant decline. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to see a flat but positive start, as indicated by trends in Gift Nifty futures.
Market Outlook and Key Predictions
After a sharp sell-off on Tuesday, investor sentiment remains fragile. The Sensex plummeted 534 points (0.63%) to close at 84,679.86, while the Nifty 50 dropped 167 points (0.64%) to settle at 25,860.10. The broader market mirrored this weakness, with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices falling 0.78% and 0.69%, respectively. This rout erased over ₹3 lakh crore from investor wealth in a single day, pulling the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms down to ₹467.6 lakh crore.
Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities warns that the Sensex remains vulnerable. He identifies 84,300 as a critical support level. A break below this could drag the index towards 84,000–83,800. For any recovery, sustained trade above the immediate resistance of 84,800 is necessary to trigger a bounce towards 85,200–85,400.
Nifty 50 Technical Analysis and Derivative Data
Technical analysts have turned cautious on the Nifty 50's near-term outlook. Om Mehra from SAMCO Securities points out that the index slipping below the 9-EMA and the middle Bollinger Band signals short-term weakness. Momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD also show deterioration. He pegs the next support at 25,720, with a decisive break potentially exposing 25,650–25,600. Resistance is now seen at the 26,000–26,050 zone.
Derivatives data reveals a tightly bound trading range. Amruta Shinde of Choice Equity Broking notes aggressive call writing at the 25,900 strike and strong put open interest at 25,800. She states that a sustained close above 26,200 is essential to revive bullish momentum; otherwise, consolidation may persist.
Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking advises a stock-specific and hedged approach, citing the 26,000–26,100 zone as a crucial hurdle. Rupak De from LKP Securities expects the Nifty to drift towards 25,700 or lower, with 25,950–26,000 acting as immediate resistance.
Bank Nifty Under Pressure: Crucial Support Ahead
The banking index continued its downtrend, ending Tuesday at 59,035. Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C. Mehta highlights that 58,800–58,900 is an immediate support zone. A firm break below 58,800 could extend the decline to 58,500–58,000. Resistance is placed at 60,000–60,120.
Vatsal Bhuva from LKP Securities reinforces the cautious stance, noting the index closed below its key short-term moving averages. He identifies 58,800 as crucial support, with a breach possibly leading to a test of the 50-day SMA near 58,300. A sustained bullish view is only justified if Bank Nifty closes above 59,500.
Overall, the market setup has shifted from a buy-on-dips strategy to a more range-bound and selective approach, with analysts urging traders to remain vigilant amid prevailing volatility and global headwinds.
