The share price of Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles (TMCV) continued its impressive rally on Tuesday, December 23, marking a second consecutive day of gains. The stock climbed another 4% to reach an intraday high of ₹428.20 per share. This sustained momentum reflects a significant boost in investor confidence, driven largely by a series of optimistic reports from leading global and domestic brokerage firms.
Nomura Initiates Coverage with Strong Buy Rating
Japanese financial giant Nomura has formally initiated coverage on TMCV stock, assigning it a 'buy' recommendation. The brokerage has set a target price of ₹481 per share, which suggests a substantial upside potential of approximately 40% from recent closing levels. Nomura's bullish stance is rooted in the anticipation of a strong upcycle for the company's India operations.
The analysts highlighted Tata Motors CV's commanding 46% market share in the domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment as a key strength for the fiscal year 2025. They project domestic volumes to grow by 10% in both FY26 and FY27, followed by a 5% growth in FY28.
This expected recovery is attributed to multiple factors, including rising freight rates, improved profitability for fleet operators, and an aging vehicle fleet with an average age of around 10 years. Nomura also pointed out that impending regulatory changes and expected price hikes could trigger pre-buying activity in the FY27–FY28 period, providing further support to sales volumes.
Global Brokerages JPMorgan and Bank of America Echo Optimism
The positive sentiment was further reinforced by other major international brokerages. JPMorgan started its coverage on TMCV with an 'Overweight' rating and a target price of ₹475 per share. The firm cited signs of a modest recovery in the commercial vehicle sector after three stagnant years.
JPMorgan also commended the company's disciplined pricing strategy among industry leaders and viewed the acquisition of Italy-based Iveco as a value-accretive move, coinciding with a bottoming cycle in the European truck market.
Similarly, Bank of America maintained its 'Buy' rating on the stock with an identical target price of ₹475. The brokerage expects a recovery in both Tata Motors' domestic and European businesses. Bank of America forecasts a robust 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in EBITDA for the period spanning FY26 to FY28. It also anticipates steady market share gains, supported by margin discipline, lower regulatory risk, and a high return on capital employed estimated at 35%.
Domestic Brokerage Ambit Capital Adds to the Positive Outlook
Adding to the chorus of approval, domestic brokerage Ambit Capital initiated coverage on December 9 with a 'Buy' recommendation and a target price of ₹430 per share. Ambit emphasized the strategic importance of the IVECO–TMCV combination, which dramatically expands the company's total addressable market (TAM) to over ₹2 trillion in potential revenue.
This partnership is expected to drive revenue diversification and unlock synergies potentially worth up to 0.5% of the combined revenues over time. The brokerage also noted that the listing of TMCV has broadened the investment landscape for the commercial vehicle segment, which historically had only Ashok Leyland as a major listed original equipment manufacturer (OEM).
The convergence of these bullish analyses from top-tier financial institutions has provided a solid foundation for the stock's resilience, helping it withstand broader market volatility. Investors are now closely watching the company's execution on its growth strategy and the materialization of the anticipated commercial vehicle upcycle.
