Grain futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) edged lower during a quiet trading session on Tuesday. The market sentiment was influenced by developments in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and significant soybean purchases by China as the year draws to a close.
Year-End Trading and China's Strategic Soybean Buys
Trading activity remained subdued following the Christmas holiday, with many participants closing their books for the year. Amid this light volume, a key development emerged from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The agency reported fresh sales of U.S. soybeans, including 136,000 metric tons to China and another 231,000 tons to unknown destinations. Both shipments are slated for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year beginning September 1.
Dan Basse, president of the Chicago-based AgResource Co., interpreted the move. He noted that China appears to be wrapping up its annual purchasing commitments. "The market talk is that China is aiming to finish up its book of buying and get 9.5 to 10 million metric tons done by the end of this year," Basse stated. He added that while this signals compliance with trade talk commitments, the big question remains about purchase volumes in the coming year.
Wheat Futures Under Pressure from Supply and Peace Hopes
Wheat contracts faced additional downward pressure from two major fronts. First, agricultural consultancy Sovecon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.4 million metric tons to 44.6 million tons, hinting at robust global supplies.
Second, hopes for a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict weighed on prices. This sentiment persisted despite recent tensions, where Russia accused Kyiv of attempting to attack President Vladimir Putin's residence—a claim Ukraine dismissed as a falsehood meant to disrupt peace talks. Analysts suggest that a resolution to the nearly four-year-long war could lower wheat prices by reducing shipping risks and reopening key Ukrainian ports, a major conduit for global wheat and corn exports.
Closing Prices and Market Outlook
At the close of Tuesday's session, the most-active CBOT contracts settled in negative territory. Soybeans fell 1-1/4 cents to $10.62-1/4 a bushel. Corn ended down 1-3/4 cents at $4.40-1/2 a bushel. Wheat finished 2-1/4 cents lower at $5.10-3/4 a bushel.
The combined effect of geopolitical developments, China's purchasing patterns, and ample global supply projections set the tone for the grain markets as they navigate the final days of the year. Traders will continue monitoring the pace of Chinese purchases against its pledged commitment to buy up to 12 million metric tons, as noted by the White House following recent trade discussions.
