India Ramps Up Russian Crude Purchases as US-Iran Conflict Disrupts Global Oil Supply
In a significant shift in energy strategy, India is poised to dramatically increase its imports of Russian crude oil, with projections indicating a potential doubling from levels seen in January. This move comes as supply disruptions from the ongoing US-Iran war severely impact shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz, driving up global oil prices and forcing India to seek alternative sources to meet its substantial energy needs.
Supply Chain Disruptions Drive Strategic Shift
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint for oil exports from the Middle East, has become increasingly unstable due to the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. This has made it difficult for traditional suppliers like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to reliably ship crude, leading to sharp price increases and supply uncertainties. India, which relies on imports for nearly 90% of its crude oil requirements, has been significantly affected by these disruptions.
Historically, India has sourced the majority of its crude from Middle Eastern nations, leveraging geographical proximity, established contracts, and dependable shipping routes. However, the current geopolitical tensions have prompted a reevaluation of this dependency, with Russian crude once again taking center stage in India's energy procurement plans.
Energy Ties Strengthen Between India and Russia
Discussions between Indian and Russian officials have intensified, focusing on expanding crude oil trade and potentially restarting direct liquefied natural gas sales from Russia to India for the first time since the Ukraine conflict began. A key meeting took place on March 19 in Delhi, involving Russian Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin and India's Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri.
According to sources familiar with the deliberations, Russian oil supplies to India could surge sharply, potentially doubling from January levels. This increase might account for at least 40% of India's total crude imports within approximately a month, marking a significant reversal from recent trends.
Historical Context and Recent Developments
Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Russia emerged as a major supplier to India, at one point accounting for about 35–40% of the country's crude imports. However, by early 2026, Western sanctions led to a decline in these purchases. The situation changed again in March 2026 when the Donald Trump administration introduced a 30-day waiver, allowing the purchase of Russian crude in an effort to stabilize global oil prices.
While India never completely halted imports of Russian oil, volumes had dropped significantly after sanctions were imposed on major Russian producers like Lukoil and Rosneft. In August 2025, the US imposed a 25% tariff linked to India's Russian oil imports, further constraining procurement and causing a gradual dip in volumes. However, current trends indicate a strong reversal.
Current Import Trends and Data Insights
Data from Kpler reveals that India has already purchased an estimated 45–50 million barrels of Russian crude since the onset of the Middle East conflict, with actual figures likely higher as April data remains pending. Current projections suggest that March imports could reach around 1.8 to 2.0 million barrels per day, one of the strongest months since India significantly increased purchases after the Ukraine war. This compares to earlier levels of about 1.0 million barrels per day.
Historically, India's peak monthly intake of Russian crude has ranged from 2.0 to 2.1 million barrels per day since 2022. The latest surge indicates that imports are once again approaching these earlier highs, effectively reversing the decline observed in recent months. This strategic pivot not only helps lower import costs but also diversifies India's supply sources, enhancing energy security amid ongoing global uncertainties.
