Indian Tea Exporters Maintain Composure Amid West Asia Geopolitical Tensions
Guwahati: Indian tea exporters are demonstrating remarkable resilience as geopolitical tensions intensify across West Asia, a region that accounts for nearly 40% of India's total tea shipments. The critical markets of Iran, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia collectively represent this substantial export share, making regional stability crucial for India's tea industry.
Production Season Yet to Begin, Impact Assessment Premature
With the 2026 production season in Assam and West Bengal yet to commence due to insufficient rainfall, industry experts emphasize that predicting the full impact of current conflicts remains premature. The production cycle in these key regions typically begins in April, with the peak harvesting period spanning July through October, during which approximately 60% of the annual crop is collected.
"It's too early to predict the impact of the war. It's not the time to hit the panic button yet," stated Bidyananda Barkakoty, adviser to the North Eastern Tea Association (NETA). Drawing a parallel to ongoing global conflicts, Barkakoty noted that despite the Russia-Ukraine war, shipments to Moscow have remained unaffected, suggesting potential resilience in other markets.
Shifting Trade Dynamics in Key Markets
Barkakoty highlighted significant changes in export patterns, revealing that while Iran once accounted for approximately 20% of India's tea shipments, recent Tea Board data for 2024 shows this figure has declined to just 3.6%. The 2025 statistics are pending release, but industry observers suggest this reduction may be linked to payment complications arising from US sanctions, potentially prompting Tehran to source Indian tea indirectly through the UAE.
"Iranian buyers love Indian tea, especially the orthodox variety, but the trade dynamics are shifting," Barkakoty explained, noting that the UAE's import share has correspondingly increased during this period.
Iraq Emerges as Major Market Success Story
In a significant development, Iraq has emerged as a particularly substantial market for Indian tea, with domestic producers successfully capturing market share previously dominated by Sri Lanka. Traditionally, Sri Lankan orthodox tea held prominence on Iraqi shelves, but Indian producers—particularly those specializing in Assam's orthodox segment—have steadily displaced Colombo's market presence.
"Traditionally dominated by Sri Lankan orthodox tea, the Iraqi market has now been captured by Indian producers," Barkakoty confirmed, highlighting this strategic market shift.
Assam's Dominance and Orthodox Tea Premium
Assam contributes approximately 50% of India's total tea export volume, with orthodox tea representing about 10% of the state's production. Most of this orthodox tea is destined for international markets, as domestic demand remains limited. According to provisional Tea Board figures, India exported 280.40 million kilograms of tea in 2025, valued at Rs 8,488.43 crore, marking an impressive 18.4% increase compared to 2024.
Assam recorded particularly strong performance with a 40 million kilogram increase in exports and 50 million kilogram growth in overall production, with the remaining 10 million kilograms consumed domestically. Assam's orthodox tea continues to command premium recognition globally, with Sri Lanka serving as its primary competitor. Kenya, while a major tea producer, does not present significant competition in the orthodox segment.
Government Support and Future Outlook
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has announced enhanced support for orthodox tea production, increasing the subsidy from Rs 10 to Rs 15 per kilogram. This move acknowledges that orthodox tea accounts for nearly half of Assam's total tea exports, underscoring its economic importance.
For now, Indian tea exporters are closely monitoring geopolitical developments across West Asia, balancing cautious optimism with practical vigilance as the new production season approaches. The industry's ability to adapt to shifting trade patterns and maintain diverse market access will be crucial in navigating current uncertainties while capitalizing on emerging opportunities in the global tea market.
