In a crucial decision for global energy markets, the OPEC+ alliance is expected to hold its oil production levels steady for the first quarter of 2026, according to sources within the group. This move signals a cautious approach as the organization balances the desire to regain market share against growing fears of an oversupply in the market.
Key Decisions and Market Context
The decision is anticipated to be finalized during a series of online meetings scheduled to begin at 1300 GMT on Sunday, November 30th. This gathering of OPEC and its allies, led by Russia, comes at a delicate time for oil prices. The international benchmark, Brent crude, closed near $63 a barrel on Friday, reflecting a significant 15% decline for the year. This downward pressure is further compounded by the prospect of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could alter global energy dynamics.
Three delegates from the group confirmed that the broader coalition is likely to make no changes to its group-wide production targets for 2026. This follows a policy of pausing output hikes that was agreed upon at their previous meeting earlier in November.
Focus on Production Capacity Assessment
In a parallel development, the full OPEC group is set to convene separately to address a long-standing internal matter. Sources indicate that the organization is expected to agree on a mechanism to assess the maximum production capacity of its member nations. This technical but critical assessment will be used to establish reference points for output baselines in 2027.
The OPEC+ alliance, which collectively pumps about half of the world's oil, has been engaged in complex negotiations for years to finalize these capacity figures, as they directly influence the individual production targets assigned to each member country.
A Strategic Pivot from Earlier Cuts
The current decision to hold output steady marks a strategic shift from the alliance's previous actions. For years, OPEC+ had been curtailing supplies to stabilize the market. These cuts reached their peak in March, amounting to a massive 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), which was nearly 6% of total world output.
This policy of restraint was reversed in April when eight key members began a phased increase in production to recover lost market share. These eight nations—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—have collectively raised their output targets by approximately 2.9 million bpd from April through December of this year. The upcoming meeting is expected to reaffirm the current pause in this output increase trajectory for the beginning of 2026.
