Melania Trump Documentary Faces Box Office Challenges Despite Massive Investment
While former President Donald Trump can dominate global headlines with a single social media post, a new documentary film focusing on First Lady Melania Trump is encountering significant difficulties in attracting audiences to theaters. According to projections from market researcher Boxoffice.com, the film Melania is expected to generate only $1 million to $2 million in ticket sales during its opening weekend. Ticketing platforms reveal numerous available seats for its January 30 debut and subsequent showings.
High Acquisition Cost Meets Streaming Era Realities
The acquisition of Melania by Amazon.com Inc.'s MGM Studios made waves early last year when it was revealed the e-commerce giant paid a staggering $40 million for the rights. However, the documentary confronts the same hurdles faced by all nonfiction films in the current streaming era, where many viewers prefer to wait for digital releases rather than attend theatrical screenings.
Another forecasting firm, NRG, offers a slightly more optimistic outlook, predicting approximately $5 million in opening weekend revenue according to reports from news site Puck. The film's release coincides with a period of low approval ratings for President Trump during his second term and follows national outcry over the killings of two US citizens by federal agents in Minneapolis.
Documentary Box Office Expectations in Perspective
Despite the modest projections, Melania might actually perform reasonably well when measured against typical documentary standards. The forecast aligns roughly with the opening weekend performance of Roadrunner, the 2021 documentary about late chef Anthony Bourdain that grossed $1.98 million in its debut—a figure considered strong for a nonfiction film at that time.
Political documentaries have occasionally resonated with audiences in the past. The highest-grossing documentary of all time remains Michael Moore's controversial Fahrenheit 9/11, which examined the Bush administration following the September 11 terrorist attacks. Conservative commentator Dinesh D'Souza's critical film 2016: Obama's America ranks tenth on the all-time documentary earnings list.
Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at industry researcher Comscore Inc., noted: "Documentaries are in a different category, and therefore box-office expectations are different than they are for a traditional film."
Film Content and Marketing Push
Melania focuses on the twenty days preceding President Trump's second inauguration, promising an intimate portrayal of the relationship between the fifty-five-year-old first lady and her spouse. In one scene from the trailer, Melania Trump addresses her husband as "Mr. President" during a phone conversation, mentioning she missed a recent appearance but would "see it on the news."
MGM Studios outbid other potential buyers to secure distribution rights, leading some critics to speculate whether Amazon executives or founder Jeff Bezos sought to curry favor with the new administration. Documentary producer Erik Nelson, known for films like Grizzly Man, told newsletter Status that he could produce thirty pictures for the amount Amazon paid for Melania.
The company is investing an additional $35 million in marketing efforts, releasing the film on approximately 1,500 screens across twenty-seven territories according to sources familiar with the plans. Amazon has promoted the documentary through television spots and billboards from Madrid to Los Angeles. Melania faces competition from two thrillers—Send Help starring Rachel McAdams and Shelter featuring Jason Statham—along with the sci-fi feature Iron Lung starring YouTube influencer Mark Fischbach.
Mixed Reactions and Streaming Plans
President Trump enthusiastically endorsed the film on social media, posting: "MELANIA, the Movie is a MUST WATCH. Get your tickets today - Selling out, FAST!" However, not all responses have been positive. A Vogue correspondent wrote: "Somehow, I know less about this woman's life than I did before I watched this trailer."
Amazon has not publicly announced when Melania will appear on its Prime Video streaming service, though its theatrical run could extend for three weeks or more according to insiders. The company believes the film could perform well even among subscribers who don't support the president but might watch out of curiosity.
Broader Context of First Family Portrayals
The first lady is scheduled to ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday, with the White House highlighting her accomplishments over the past year including online child safety protections and support for youth transitioning from foster care.
Corporations have previously paid substantial sums for exclusive portrayals of first families. Following a competitive bidding war after Barack Obama left office, Penguin Random House agreed to pay over $65 million for rights to memoirs by both the former president and his wife Michelle according to Financial Times reports.
Melania represents another example of how the first family has augmented their nearly $7 billion fortune. The Trumps have undertaken various projects during the second term, including meme coins introduced on inauguration weekend last year, that have contributed over $1 billion to their wealth.
Premiere Details and Controversial Connections
The first couple plans a January 29 premiere of Melania at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts—the Washington venue recently renamed with the president's name by a Trump-appointed board. An after-party will follow at the exclusive Executive Branch club according to sources familiar with the arrangements.
The club maintains financial connections to the Trumps, having been launched by the president's son Donald Trump Jr. with business partner Omeed Malik. Founding members paid approximately $500,000 for access privileges. A club spokesman declined to comment on the premiere arrangements.
Melania was directed by Brett Ratner, known for action films like Rush Hour and Red Dragon. This marks Ratner's first major project since multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct in 2017—allegations he has consistently denied.
