IIM Ahmedabad Study Predicts Television Audience to Exceed One Billion Viewers by 2029
A comprehensive report from the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIM Ahmedabad) forecasts that India's television audience is set to achieve a monumental milestone, reaching nearly 1.03 billion viewers by the year 2029. This projection underscores television's enduring relevance in the nation's media landscape, even amidst the digital revolution.
Key Drivers of Television Growth
The report, titled "Future of TV in India," authored by professors Viswanath Pingali and Ankur Sinha, identifies several critical factors propelling this growth:
- Economic Expansion: Rising incomes and improving economic conditions across states are making television sets more accessible to a broader population.
- Literacy Improvements: Higher literacy rates are directly correlated with increased TV adoption, as television serves as both entertainment and an educational tool.
- Internet Penetration: Contrary to assumptions of competition, expanding internet access is found to complement television viewership, with both mediums growing simultaneously.
The study estimates that television viewership will grow at a steady annual rate of approximately 2 to 3 percent, translating to about 2.37 percent per year. This sustained growth phase is supported by the Brij Disa Centre for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence (CDSA) at IIM Ahmedabad.
Rural and Lower-Income States Lead the Charge
A significant revelation from the report is the anticipated sharp increase in television audiences within rural areas and lower-income states. As infrastructure improves and per capita incomes rise, these regions are expected to catch up with current penetration levels seen in higher-income states.
The analysis indicates that in lower-income states—defined as those with per capita GDP below the national average—an increase in state GDP per capita by Rs 1 lakh could result in an addition of 25 million television viewers. This highlights the profound impact of economic development on media consumption patterns.
Methodology and Analytical Insights
Utilizing a robust statistical regression framework, the researchers examined variations in television audiences across different markets over multiple years. The model incorporated key covariates such as:
- Number of internet subscribers
- Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) per capita
- Literacy rates
- Dependency ratio
- Income levels
- Access to micro-credit
Findings from this analysis confirm that as states continue to urbanize and household infrastructure enhances, television penetration is expected to rise meaningfully, particularly in traditionally under-penetrated markets.
Television's Socio-Economic Impact
Beyond mere viewership numbers, the report emphasizes television's role as a catalyst for social development. Features like same-language subtitling are noted to contribute significantly to improved literacy, especially in rural India.
Television content also influences awareness around personal autonomy, financial independence, and progressive attitudes towards gender norms, thereby shaping societal values and behaviors.
Expert Perspectives
Professor Viswanath Pingali, a faculty member in the Economics Area at IIMA, commented that the study aims to establish data-led indicators to understand television's growth trajectory as a mature consumption medium and its role in India's socio-economic development.
Professor Ankur Sinha, from the Operations & Decision Sciences Area, added that the analysis reveals the consistent impact of internet penetration, income growth, and demographic composition on expanding television audiences, particularly in markets that have historically been under-penetrated.
Conclusion: Television's Enduring Strength
The report concludes that television remains deeply embedded in India's social fabric. By combining factors such as internet subscribers, state GDP per capita, literacy rates, and dependency ratios, the study presents a futuristic audience estimation model.
This model not only projects the evolving scale of TV viewership but also offers independent academic validation of television's enduring strength in India, affirming its continued significance alongside digital platforms.
