In a strategic move to capture a significant share of the burgeoning market for weight-loss medications, Mumbai-based Ajanta Pharma has entered into a partnership with biotechnology major Biocon. The alliance aims to distribute a generic version of the blockbuster drug semaglutide across 26 countries in Asia and Africa, capitalizing on upcoming patent expirations.
A Strategic Alliance for Emerging Markets
The agreement, detailed by Ajanta Pharma's managing director Yogesh Agrawal, involves the company procuring the finished semaglutide injectable pen from Biocon. Ajanta will then exclusively distribute the product under its own brand in 23 of the targeted countries and will have a semi-exclusive arrangement in the remaining three. The company is banking on its formidable on-ground presence in these regions, where it already derives over 40% of its revenue, to drive market penetration.
Ajanta Pharma estimates the current market size for semaglutide in these 26 countries, solely served by innovator Novo Nordisk, to be between $35 million and $45 million. However, the company projects this figure could grow tenfold within the next two to three years as patents lapse and more affordable generic versions become available. The global GLP-1 drug market is currently valued at a staggering $55 billion.
Capitalizing on a Patent Cliff and High Demand
Semaglutide, the active ingredient in popular drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy, mimics the GLP-1 hormone to manage type 2 diabetes and obesity. Novo Nordisk is set to lose patent exclusivity for semaglutide in several nations, including India, in 2026. This opens a massive off-patent opportunity, especially in emerging economies.
According to an August note from healthcare data firm IQVIA, approximately 40% of the world's population and an estimated 33% of adults living with obesity reside in countries where the semaglutide patent expires next year. Ajanta's deep distribution network, supported by about 2,000 of its 5,600 medical representatives in these markets, provides a critical competitive edge.
"The idea with this tie-up is to join strength with them (Biocon) and take their product to emerging markets where they don't have a presence," Agrawal stated, highlighting the synergy of Ajanta's distribution muscle and Biocon's research and manufacturing expertise.
Navigating Competition and Banking on Barriers to Entry
While the emerging markets space may not be as crowded as the anticipated fierce competition in India, Ajanta will still face tight rivalry. Other Indian pharmaceutical giants, including Dr. Reddy's Laboratories and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, have indicated plans or have already begun exporting semaglutide to non-patent regions.
Despite this, Ajanta believes high entry barriers will limit the number of serious competitors. Agrawal pointed to the significant investment required for specialized manufacturing plants, device development, and clinical studies as deterrents. The company aims to be among the top five players in its targeted markets by leveraging its overseas salesforce, one of the largest for an Indian pharma company.
Analysts view the move positively. Shrikant Akolkar, a pharma analyst at Nuvama Institutional Equities, noted that Ajanta is well-equipped due to its branded generics strength in African and Asian markets. He added that pricing in these markets, while cheaper than innovator drugs, is not expected to drop as drastically as in India (where estimates suggest an 80-90% reduction), making it a profitable venture given the growing, untreated prevalence of obesity.
Ajanta Pharma plans to initiate regulatory filings for these 26 markets in early 2026 and expects financial gains to start materializing from the calendar year 2027. The company is also exploring a separate partnership for launching the drug in the Indian market.
