Bangladesh's Crucial Parliamentary Election: A Defining Moment for India's Regional Strategy
Bangladesh is set to vote on Thursday in a parliamentary election that may have more profound implications for India than any recent electoral exercise in its neighbourhood. With the Awami League of Sheikh Hasina not participating, India's prospects for a realistic reset in ties with Dhaka intriguingly hinge on a majority for the frontrunner Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Historically, the BNP has been Hasina's political rival and maintained fraught relations with New Delhi.
India's Diplomatic Pivot and Engagement with the BNP
Following the 2024 July Uprising that ousted long-term ally Sheikh Hasina, India recalibrated its approach, intensifying outreach to the BNP. New Delhi recognised that the then Khaleda Zia-led party presented the optimal choice for future legitimacy and stability in Bangladesh. This renewed engagement included Prime Minister Narendra Modi's offer of assistance for Zia's medical treatment just before her passing, and a letter delivered to her son and current leader Tarique Rahman via Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar. These efforts solidified India's initiative, despite the complicating factor of Hasina's presence in India.
The Electoral Landscape and Key Contenders
In the absence of the banned Awami League, the election is anticipated to feature a tight bipolar contest between the BNP alliance and another major bloc comprising 11 parties. This coalition includes a curious mix of Islamists and Gen-Z revolutionaries, led by India's traditional adversary Jamaat-e-Islami. Jamaat is joined by the National Citizen Party (NCP), a new political entity formed by student leaders who spearheaded the mass protests that toppled Hasina.
Beyond the election results, India will closely monitor the Constitutional "July Charter" referendum occurring alongside the general election. Emphasising a two-term limit for the Prime Minister, the introduction of an upper house to review legislation, and a focus on Bangladeshi rather than Bengali identity, the referendum appears designed not only to prevent a return to "authoritarianism" but also to diminish India's deep-rooted cultural and linguistic connections with the country.
India's Strategic Concerns and Priorities
India is keen to engage promptly with the likely new government, given the critical importance of Dhaka ties for its own security and Bangladesh's emerging role as a "swing state" sought by powers like the US and China. However, any outreach will be tempered by several key concerns:
- Security Cooperation: Preventing Indian insurgent groups in the northeast from using Bangladeshi territory against India will be a top agenda item. The previous BNP-Jamaat government faced accusations of providing safe havens to such groups two decades ago. Robust security cooperation, including intelligence-sharing, is seen as vital to mitigate these risks.
- Countering External Influences: India is wary of Pakistani forces leveraging Bangladesh to target Indian interests. The interim government has already initiated a dramatic turnaround in relations with Pakistan, with increased defence and security ties, including frequent visits by ISI officials to Dhaka, heightening India's security anxieties. Historically, the BNP-Jamaat government was also accused of pivoting towards Pakistan.
- Monitoring Chinese Ingress: India will closely watch Chinese advancements into Bangladesh's defence sector, such as a recent deal to manufacture drones near Indian territory, which could impact regional security dynamics.
- Protection of Minorities: The safety and security of Bangladesh's 13-million-strong Hindu community will be a priority for India, as evidenced by Prime Minister Modi raising this issue on multiple occasions.
- Economic and Logistical Frameworks: India expects continued cooperation for transporting goods to the northeast through Bangladeshi ports under existing agreements, ensuring regional connectivity and trade stability.
The Hasina Factor and Future Challenges
For any meaningful outreach, India may first need to address the issue of Sheikh Hasina. The BNP is likely to press for her extradition, as she has been sentenced to death for alleged crimes against humanity. Sources in Dhaka indicate that this matter resonates deeply with public sentiment, and India risks being perceived as an unreliable ally if seen as shielding Hasina.
A potential BNP government is expected to aggressively pursue issues like border killings, water sharing, and the revival of SAARC. Additionally, India could face challenges from a resurgent Jamaat-e-Islami, projected to win between 50 to 100 seats—more than ever in its history. If this occurs, the party's role as a powerful opposition or potential BNP ally could trigger significant anxiety in India regarding its influence and regional implications.
As Bangladesh heads to the polls, the election outcome will not only shape the country's domestic trajectory but also test India's diplomatic agility in navigating a complex and evolving neighbourhood landscape.
