The End of START: A New Era of Nuclear Uncertainty Demands Global Action
The Trump Administration's decision to allow the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) with Russia to lapse represents a historic turning point in the management of nuclear weapons. This move marks a sharp departure from decades of tradition, where legally binding treaties with strict verification were seen as essential for global stability and mutual security among superpowers.
A Shift in U.S. Strategy: From Treaty-Based Limits to Unilateral Deterrence
Under President Trump, the United States has embraced a new approach that prioritises unconstrained deterrence, technological superiority, and flexible military postures over the old framework of codified arms control. This strategy reflects a broader reorientation away from international institutions, with the administration arguing that classical treaties like START imposed outdated constraints while failing to address emerging threats.
Key drivers of this shift include:
- China's rapid expansion of its nuclear arsenal
- The proliferation of advanced delivery systems such as hypersonic vehicles
- The growing prominence of tactical and theatre-level nuclear weapons
START had previously capped U.S. and Russian arsenals at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 delivery systems, supported by rigorous data exchanges and inspections. With its demise, these critical limits and verification mechanisms have vanished, leaving a void in global security architecture.
Global Implications: Ripple Effects Beyond U.S.-Russia Relations
The collapse of formal arms control is set to create widespread instability, extending far beyond the bilateral relationship between Washington and Moscow. Analysts warn that this environment will fuel hedging strategies and worst-case planning, potentially accelerating a renewed arms race.
States feeling vulnerable may perceive fewer constraints on pursuing nuclear options, leading to increased proliferation risks. Efforts to involve China in future frameworks are likely to falter, as Beijing has little incentive to freeze its arsenal at a position of perceived inferiority.
In Europe, uncertainty over U.S. commitments and ongoing Russian aggression could push nations towards developing a "Eurodeterrent" capability. Similarly, Japan and South Korea may face growing pressures to consider their own nuclear capabilities in response to regional threats.
India's Strategic Imperative: From Bystander to Norm-Shaper
For India, the emerging reality of nuclear multipolarity presents both challenges and opportunities. Rather than remaining a passive observer, New Delhi must proactively engage with major powers to shape new norms and stabilising mechanisms for a world with multiple nuclear actors.
India's role is crucial in this context because:
- It possesses a responsible nuclear doctrine and a track record of restraint
- It maintains strategic relationships with key players like the U.S., Russia, and European nations
- It can advocate for inclusive frameworks that address the concerns of both established and emerging nuclear states
The post-START era demands innovative thinking and collaborative diplomacy. India's leadership in fostering dialogue and developing new security architectures will be essential to prevent escalation and promote stability in an increasingly complex global landscape.
