European Military Analysis Highlights India's Air Dominance in 2025 Conflict
NEW DELHI: A comprehensive European military assessment has concluded that India's decisive air superiority during the intense "88-hour Operation Sindoor" effectively coerced Pakistan into agreeing to a ceasefire during the May 7-10, 2025, military confrontation. The detailed report provides a neutral, professional analysis of the aerial engagements that defined this critical episode in Indo-Pak relations.
Independent Swiss Study Details Aerial Confrontation
The report, formally titled 'Operation Sindoor: The India-Pakistan Air War (7–10 May 2025)', was authored by military historian Adrien Fontanellaz and published recently by the Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires (CHPM). This independent Swiss institution, founded in 1969 and based in Switzerland, specializes in military history and strategic studies. It maintains no governmental affiliations and positions itself as a neutral platform dedicated to rigorous professional military research, lending significant credibility to its findings.
Analysis of Tactical Shifts and Strategic Outcomes
Referring directly to last year's Indo-Pak conflict, the CHPM report presents a nuanced narrative. "This clash between the Pakistan and Indian air forces initially saw the former achieve a clear tactical victory by shooting down several enemy fighters," the analysis states. However, it notes a pivotal shift: "Pakistan then largely failed in its conduct of strikes over Indian territory, as those were countered by an integrated air defence system whose effectiveness was one of the surprises of the conflict."
Conversely, the report details how the Indian Air Force executed a successful counter-strategy. "The Indian Air Force managed to significantly degrade the enemy's air defence system, then concluded the conflict by carrying out a series of spectacular strikes against Pakistan’s principal Air Force stations," it explains. The analysis culminates in a stark conclusion: "Thus, by achieving clear air superiority, India coerced Islamabad into requesting a ceasefire."
Assessment of Aircraft Losses and Military Capabilities
While the Indian government has never officially admitted to losing any fighter aircraft, including its advanced Rafale jets, during the conflict, the Swiss report addresses this point. "The loss of at least one Indian Rafale fighter jet on the night of 7 May 2025, can be seen as the tip of the iceberg," it observes, adding that this particular event "made a strong impression in the West and attracted significant media attention."
The analysis places this within the broader context of a high-tech confrontation. "This sequence saw a large-scale confrontation between two competent air forces, equipped with small fleets of state-of-the-art aircraft designs, such as the J10C and the Rafale, supported by substantial fleets of fourth-generation combat aircraft as well as sophisticated integrated air defence networks and force multipliers," the report elaborates, highlighting the modern and complex nature of the engagement.
Strategic Implications and Nuclear Context
On the broader strategic and escalatory risks, the report offers a sobering perspective. "On the strategic plane, Operation Sindoor has led to conventional military clashes of considerable magnitude between two de facto nuclear-weapon states with differing doctrines regarding the use of nuclear weapons," it states, emphasizing that this dynamic "made the situation very tricky to handle, with a high risk of escalation and potentially catastrophic consequences."
Key Military Lessons Learned
The CHPM analysis concludes by extracting valuable lessons from the conflict. "This episode provides valuable lessons on the tactical and operational plans," it asserts, particularly because it "illustrates the strong interpenetration between the military and communication lines of operation." Furthermore, the report confirms a persistent paradigm in modern warfare: "a paradigm that has been consistently confirmed over the years, namely the crucial role of long-range strikes" in determining the outcome of such high-intensity conflicts.
