A high-level parliamentary committee has issued a stark warning, stating that India is confronting its most profound strategic challenge in over five decades, directly linked to the evolving political and security landscape in neighbouring Bangladesh. The situation, marked by a resurgence of Islamist forces, weakening domestic institutions, and the growing clout of China and Pakistan, represents a long-term test for New Delhi's regional policy.
Committee Flags a "Generational Discontinuity" in Bangladesh
The Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs tabled its ninth report, titled ‘Future of India-Bangladesh Relationship’, in the Lok Sabha on Thursday. Chaired by Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, the panel gathered testimonies from government officials and independent experts to compile its assessment.
The report quotes an expert stating, "India faces its greatest strategic challenge in Bangladesh since the Liberation war of 1971." It elaborates that while the 1971 war was an existential and humanitarian crisis leading to a nation's birth, the current challenge is of a "graver, a generational discontinuity" involving a potential shift in political order and strategic alignment away from India.
The committee highlighted that the declining political dominance of the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League, despite its victory securing 224 of 300 seats in the January 2024 elections, is a key concern. The panel specifically flagged the estimated voter turnout of around 40 per cent, raising questions about popular participation, political legitimacy, and public confidence.
Rising External Influence and Internal Instability
A major red flag raised in the document is the expanding footprint of both China and Pakistan within Bangladesh. The committee cautioned that these developments could dilute India's traditional influence in Dhaka and significantly complicate New Delhi's strategic calculations in its immediate neighbourhood.
Internally, the panel pointed to a dangerous cocktail of youth-led nationalist sentiment and a renewed presence of Islamist groups. It warned that this combination could act as a potent destabilising force, with serious implications for Bangladesh's internal security and the wider region's stability.
The report starkly concluded, "...if India fails to recalibrate at this moment, it risks losing strategic space in Dhaka not to war, but to irrelevance."
India's Response and Committee's Recommendations
On the sensitive issue of former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's stay in India, the committee noted that India's approach was guided by its "civilisational ethos and humanitarian tradition" of offering refuge. It recommended the government continue this principled stance while managing such situations with due sensitivity.
The panel, however, questioned why Indian authorities failed to anticipate the political crisis despite warning signals and extensive media coverage. In response, the government stated the situation is being monitored on a priority basis with continuous assessments.
Regarding regional collaboration, the report included the Foreign Secretary's clear stance on SAARC, stating revival talks are impossible "until Pakistan changes its state policy of cross border terrorism." The official suggested focusing on BIMSTEC, headquartered in Dhaka, as a viable alternative.
In its final suggestions, the committee urged the government to:
- Advocate for a democratic, stable, and inclusive Bangladesh anchored in the spirit of 1971.
- Maintain sustained diplomatic engagement with all political and civil society stakeholders in Bangladesh.
- Employ Track II and Track 1.5 diplomacy, including parliamentary exchanges and cultural outreach, to strengthen people-to-people ties and counter misperceptions.
The report underscores that Bangladesh's evolving trajectory will require India's sustained and strategic attention, given its central role in regional stability.
