Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent two-nation tour to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, concluded on February 15, 2024, was a calibrated exercise in strategic hedging. The visit, occurring against a complex backdrop of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and regional instability, was designed to reinforce India's critical partnerships while safeguarding its multifaceted interests in West Asia.
Deepening Ties with the UAE: Beyond Energy
In Abu Dhabi, the engagement with President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan moved beyond traditional diplomacy. A landmark achievement was the signing of a Bilateral Investment Treaty, a pact negotiated for years, which is expected to provide a major boost to cross-border investments. The leaders also endorsed the ambitious India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), a strategic infrastructure project envisioned as a counterbalance to China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Furthermore, PM Modi inaugurated the first Hindu stone temple in Abu Dhabi, the BAPS Mandir, a move that resonated deeply with the massive Indian diaspora in the UAE. This act underscored the cultural and people-to-people dimensions of the relationship. The discussions also covered cooperation in emerging areas like digital infrastructure, fintech, and clean energy, signaling a future-oriented partnership.
Qatar Visit: Navigating Diplomatic Sensitivities
The subsequent visit to Doha, following the release of eight former Indian naval personnel who were on death row, carried significant diplomatic weight. PM Modi's meetings with Qatar's Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani focused on consolidating the vital energy partnership. Qatar is a key supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to India, and energy security was a top agenda item.
The talks also emphasized enhancing trade, investment, and cooperation in defense and security. This leg of the tour demonstrated India's ability to manage sensitive diplomatic situations while steadfastly pursuing its core national interests, including the welfare of its citizens abroad.
The Core Strategy: Hedging in a Volatile Region
Analysts view this dual visit as a textbook example of strategic hedging. India is maintaining a delicate balance by engaging with all regional powers without aligning fully with any single bloc. The key pillars of this approach include:
- Energy Security: Securing reliable supplies from both the UAE and Qatar, crucial for India's growing economy.
- Diaspora Welfare: Addressing the concerns of over 9 million Indian expatriates in the Gulf region, whose remittances are vital.
- Economic Diversification: Moving beyond buyer-seller relationships to partnerships in technology, infrastructure, and green energy.
- Strategic Autonomy: Preserving India's independent foreign policy stance amidst the great power competition and regional rivalries in West Asia.
By advancing the IMEC with the UAE and simultaneously strengthening ties with Qatar, India is creating multiple options and reducing over-dependence on any single partner or route. This multi-vector diplomacy allows New Delhi to navigate the tensions between Arab states, Iran, and Israel more effectively.
In conclusion, PM Modi's West Asia tour was not merely a routine diplomatic exercise. It was a clear signal of India's intent to play a larger, more proactive role in the region's strategic landscape. By simultaneously deepening ties with key Gulf nations, India is building a resilient network of relationships that ensures its energy needs, protects its diaspora, and amplifies its economic and geopolitical influence. This strategy of pragmatic engagement and strategic hedging is likely to define India's West Asia policy in the coming years.
