The year 2026 has opened with a stark demonstration that the post-Cold War framework of global norms has effectively collapsed. The trigger was Israel's recognition of Somaliland as an independent state last week, a move that shatters the long-held compromise between political reality and legal principle. This event, coupled with ongoing crises in Ukraine and Taiwan, signals a new era where power and pragmatic interests routinely override established international rules.
The Somaliland Precedent and the Erosion of Global Norms
Israel's decision to recognise Somaliland, while widely condemned, is unlikely to be reversed. It is driven by a clear geopolitical calculus. Somaliland's location at the mouth of the Red Sea offers Israel strategic maritime access and a larger regional role. This action punctures a core myth of the rules-based international order (RBIO): that the global community will universally rally to defend a state's sovereignty when violated. Somalia's territorial integrity has received only fragmented support.
Reactions reveal the selective application of norms. While many Arab and African states criticised Israel, key players like the United Arab Emirates (with investments in Somaliland's Berbera port) and Bahrain remain ambivalent. Landlocked Ethiopia, seeking sea access via Somaliland, has stayed silent. For over three decades, Somaliland functioned as a de facto state; its non-recognition was the RBIO's awkward compromise. Israel has simply acknowledged what major powers practice: material interests trump political norms.
India's Diplomatic Tightrope and Tangible Stakes
India finds itself navigating this normative vacuum with careful balance. New Delhi is unlikely to oppose Israel's move, given its close partnerships with Israel and Ethiopia. Simultaneously, it does not wish to alienate the African Union or Middle Eastern partners who oppose the decision. India's response will be a diplomatic balancing act rather than a claim to the moral high ground.
India's stakes in the region are direct and historical. Somaliland lies within India's Indian Ocean sphere, linked historically through trade and defence networks under British India. Developments in the Horn of Africa directly impact India's energy routes, maritime trade, and naval security. The crumbling of norms presents a clear lesson: declarations about inviolable borders ring hollow when aggression is tacitly accepted or goes unpunished.
Three Strategic Imperatives for India in a Post-Normative World
In this transformed environment, where major powers like China, Russia, and the US engage in territorial revisionism, smaller states cannot rely on the RBIO's protective shield. Even forums like ASEAN, the Arab League, or BRICS have proven ineffective or divided in defending sovereignty. For India, three priorities become paramount.
The first is strengthening internal political coherence. Societies fractured along sectarian, ethnic, or regional lines are acutely vulnerable to external manipulation and internal breakdown. Unity is the first line of defence.
The second is building credible deterrence. Norms cannot protect sovereignty without the backing of military capacity and the unambiguous political will to impose costs on those who violate borders.
The third is exercising regional leadership in South Asia. If India cannot drive peace and stability in its own neighbourhood, other global powers like the US and China will leverage regional conflicts to their own advantage, as seen in their claimed peace-making roles between India and Pakistan.
As C. Raja Mohan argues, the events of early 2026 underscore that territorial sovereignty is not a privilege granted by the international community but a political treasure that must be relentlessly nurtured and defended. The age of relying on abstract rules is over; the age of pragmatic self-reliance has begun.
