The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has fundamentally altered the international landscape, creating new geopolitical realities that demand a fresh strategic approach from nations worldwide. For India, a country with historically strong ties to Russia, this moment presents a critical juncture. According to seasoned analyst K P Nayar, the time has come for New Delhi to make bold choices in its Russia policy, moving decisively away from merely playing it safe.
A World Redrawn: The Geopolitical Aftermath of War
The war in Eastern Europe is not just a regional conflict; it is an event that has redrawn maps and reshaped alliances on a global scale. Traditional power balances have been disrupted, and new economic and security blocs are emerging. In this transformed environment, India's longstanding policy of strategic autonomy and careful balancing is being tested like never before. The comfortable, predictable dynamics of the past have given way to a complex and volatile situation where old partnerships are under strain and new opportunities—and threats—are materializing.
India's Delicate Balancing Act
For decades, India's relationship with Russia has been a cornerstone of its foreign and defence policy. However, the war has placed New Delhi in a delicate position, caught between its historical partner and its growing strategic convergences with Western nations. The policy of "safe bets"—maintaining a neutral public stance while continuing key engagements—has so far allowed India to navigate the immediate crisis. Yet, as Nayar points out, this approach may be insufficient for the long term. The war's consequences are creating permanent shifts in trade routes, energy flows, and defence supply chains, areas where India has vital interests.
The new realities include a more isolated Russia pivoting towards China, a reinvigorated and expanding NATO, and a global focus on supply chain resilience. India must decide how to engage with these changes proactively rather than reactively.
The Path Forward: From Reaction to Strategy
The core of the argument is that India must transition from a reactive to a strategic posture. This involves making clear-eyed assessments about future global trends and where India's national interests lie within them. It may require difficult decisions regarding defence diversification, energy security, and diplomatic positioning. The goal is not to abandon the relationship with Russia entirely but to redefine it within the context of the new global realities and India's own aspirations as a leading power.
This could mean taking calculated risks to secure longer-term advantages, whether in forging new technology partnerships, securing critical resource agreements, or shaping the narratives in multilateral forums. The status quo, while comfortable in the short term, could lead to missed opportunities or strategic irrelevance in the emerging world order. As Nayar's analysis underscores, the cost of inaction or excessive caution may be higher than the perceived risk of bold, strategic decision-making.
Ultimately, the message is clear: the geopolitical map has been irrevocably changed. India's foreign policy, particularly its stance towards Russia, must evolve with equal decisiveness to secure the nation's future in this new world.
