Bihar's Political Fate Hangs in Balance as Counting Day Arrives
With less than 24 hours remaining for the Bihar assembly election results, political tension reaches its peak across the state. The counting of votes for all 243 seats will determine whether the National Democratic Alliance secures a decisive victory or faces an unexpected challenge from the opposition.
Exit Poll Predictions Point Toward NDA Dominance
Most exit polls have forecast a strong performance by the NDA coalition, predicting 140 plus seats for the five-party alliance comprising BJP, JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Rashtriya Lok Morcha, and Hindustani Awam Morcha. Notably, Today's Chanakya and Poll Diary have projected a clear sweep for the ruling coalition.
However, Pradeep Gupta-led Axis My India has presented a contrasting view, forecasting that the Rashtriya Janata Dal will emerge as the single largest party. The same poll indicated that unemployed voters and students preferred the Mahagathbandhan.
Looking Back at the 2020 Assembly Election Performance
To understand the current political landscape, it's essential to examine how major parties performed in the previous assembly elections. In 2020, the NDA narrowly returned to power against a formidable challenge from the RJD-led alliance.
The Bharatiya Janata Party contested 110 seats and won 74 seats with a vote share of 19.46%. Three BJP candidates lost their deposits in that election.
Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) fought on 115 seats but managed to win only 43 seats with a 15.39% vote share. Five JD(U) candidates also lost their deposits. Interestingly, this year both BJP and JD(U) contested 101 seats each, with most exit polls predicting the latter might perform better.
The Rashtriya Janata Dal demonstrated significant strength in 2020, fielding candidates for 144 seats and winning 75 seats with an impressive 23.11% vote share. Only one RJD candidate lost their deposit.
Other Parties' Performance in Previous Election
The Congress party contested 70 seats in 2020 and secured 9.48% of votes, but only 19 candidates emerged victorious, while four lost their deposits.
Among smaller parties, significant performances included:
- HAM contested seven seats and won four with 0.89% vote share
- Vikassheel Insaan Party won four out of 13 contested seats
- CPI(ML)(L) secured 12 victories from 19 contests with 3.16% votes
- Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM won five of 20 contested seats with 1.24% votes
Bahujan Samaj Party and Lok Janshakti Party contested 78 and 135 seats respectively but managed to win only one seat each. CPI and CPIM won two seats each, while NCP and RLSP failed to win any seats despite contesting 80 and 99 seats respectively.
Notably, among 1,299 independent candidates, only one succeeded, and NOTA accounted for 7,06,295 votes (1.68% of total votes).
What's at Stake for Bihar's Political Future
The upcoming results will determine whether JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar secures a record fifth term as chief minister or whether Bihar witnesses a change in government after years of NDA rule. While exit polls largely favor the ruling coalition, the actual counting process will reveal whether these predictions hold true or if the state is headed for a political surprise.
All eyes remain fixed on the counting centers as Bihar prepares to write the next chapter of its political history, with outcomes expected to have significant implications for national politics ahead of the 2024 general elections.
