Bihar Election 2025 Concludes with Record Voter Participation
The highly anticipated Bihar Assembly election for 2025 has officially concluded, marked by a record-breaking voter turnout across the state. As the votes are counted, several major exit polls have been released, painting a picture of the potential outcome. The collective data from these surveys suggests that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is positioned to make a return to power in this key Hindi-heartland state.
Exit Poll Results: A Clear Advantage for NDA
Leading media outlets and research organizations have published their exit poll findings, which largely converge on an advantageous position for the ruling coalition.
Dainik Bhaskar's survey forecasts the NDA to secure between 145 and 160 seats in the 243-member assembly, with the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) expected to win 73 to 91 seats.
People's Insight provides a slightly tighter race, predicting 133 to 148 seats for the NDA and 87 to 102 for the MGB.
Similarly, People's Pulse anticipates the NDA to garner between 133 and 159 seats, while the MGB is projected to get 75 to 101 seats.
Potential Ripple Effects on the Indian Stock Market
While state assembly elections are typically fought on local issues and seldom trigger major shifts in national policy or stock market sentiment, the Bihar verdict carries a unique weight. As India's third most populous state, representing a significant 7 per cent of the total Lok Sabha seats, a decisive result is unlikely to be a complete non-event for the markets.
Market experts believe that a victory for the NDA would be viewed as a sentimentally positive development. It would be interpreted as an endorsement of the central government's alliance and its policies. Conversely, a defeat for the NDA could temporarily weigh on market mood.
However, analysts are quick to temper expectations of a lasting impact. G Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research Private Limited, emphasized that even a poor showing by the NDA in the exit polls is unlikely to cause a major setback for the stock markets in the short term. He pointed out that the next general election is still about 3.5 years away, and political fortunes can change dramatically within a few months, making the market less reactive to this single state outcome.
Echoing this view, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, stated that a decisive NDA win would be positive for sentiment but is unlikely to influence the present market trend. He explained that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, driven by prospects of improving earnings growth but held back by sustained selling from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs). A poor performance by the NDA, he noted, would be negative for sentiment but not a trend-altering event.
The consensus among experts is clear: the Bihar election results of 2025 are not expected to trigger any major changes in the central government's policies or its capital expenditure plans, which are the primary drivers of sustained market movement. Therefore, any market reaction is likely to be short-lived, with broader economic fundamentals and global cues quickly reclaiming their role as the main influencers.
