As the final votes were cast in the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 on Tuesday, 11th November, all eyes turned to the exit poll predictions. Major survey agencies have unanimously projected a clear victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), suggesting the coalition is poised to cross the majority mark of 122 seats in the 243-member legislative house.
What Are Exit Polls and Why The Buzz?
Exit polls are surveys conducted by media houses and independent agencies immediately after voters leave the polling stations. These polls provide an early snapshot of voter sentiment and emerging political trends. However, it is crucial to remember that they are not the final results and have been known to be inaccurate in the past.
For the Bihar 2025 elections, agencies like Axis My India, CVoter, IPSOS, Jan Ki Baat, and Today's Chanakya conducted these surveys. Their collective prediction estimated that the NDA, helmed by the BJP and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JD(U), would secure a tally well above the 122-seat majority. The opposition Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD, was projected to win around 100 or fewer seats.
The Crucial Difference: Exit Polls vs. Opinion Polls
A key distinction for competitive exam aspirants is understanding how exit polls differ from opinion polls.
Exit Polls are conducted after voting has concluded. In contrast, Opinion Polls are carried out before the elections. This timing is critical because of the strict guidelines imposed by the Election Commission of India (ECI) to prevent influencing voters.
According to ECI rules, exit polls cannot be published or broadcast until the entire voting process is completely finished. This prevents the results from affecting voters who have not yet cast their ballots.
The Legal Framework and Historical Context
The regulation of exit and opinion polls has a complex history. There have been long-standing demands from political parties to ban such polls, arguing they create "undue influence" on the electorate.
After challenges and deliberations, the Indian Parliament added Section 126A to the Representation of the People Act, 1951. This law explicitly prohibits the conduct and dissemination of exit poll results from the start of polling in the first phase until half an hour after the close of poll in the last phase.
For opinion polls, Section 126(1)(b) of the same act bans the display of any election matter, including opinion poll results, on electronic media during the 48 hours preceding the end of polling in each phase.
Violating these provisions is a punishable offense, which can lead to imprisonment for up to two years, a fine, or both.
Bihar 2025: A Election of Record-Breaking Turnout
Beyond the exit polls, the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 was historic for its voter participation. The state witnessed an overall voter turnout of 66.91%, the highest since its first assembly elections in 1951.
A particularly remarkable milestone was the record-breaking participation of women voters. Female voter turnout soared to a historic 71.6%, significantly higher than the 62.8% turnout among male voters, creating a gender gap of 8.8%. This underscores a growing and active participation of women in the democratic process.
This high-stakes electoral exercise in Bihar not only determines the state's political future but also serves as a vital case study for UPSC aspirants, highlighting the practical application of constitutional principles, election laws, and the vibrant dynamics of Indian democracy.
