Bihar Exit Polls Project Clear Mandate for Ruling Coalition
Exit polls released on Tuesday, November 12, 2025, have unanimously predicted a comfortable victory for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar assembly elections. Multiple polling agencies suggest the ruling coalition could approach the significant two-thirds majority mark in the 243-member legislative assembly.
Detailed Seat Projections Across Agencies
According to the comprehensive data from various pollsters, the NDA appears positioned for a strong performance. The Dainik Bhaskar exit poll projects the alliance securing between 145 and 160 seats, while the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan may win 73 to 91 constituencies. Other smaller parties and independents are expected to capture 5 to 10 seats.
People's Insight forecasts a similar outcome with 133-148 seats for the NDA and 87-102 for the opposition Mahagathbandhan, while others might secure 3-6 seats. Matrize exit poll presents an even more optimistic picture for the ruling coalition, predicting 147-167 seats for the NDA against 70-90 for the Mahagathbandhan, with others getting 2-10 seats.
JVC-Polls estimates the NDA could win 135-150 seats, with the Mahagathbandhan obtaining 88-103 seats and others 3-6. People's Pulse projects the NDA at 133-159 seats, the Mahagathbandhan at 75-101, while Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj might get 0-5 seats and other parties 2-8.
Political Implications and Historical Context
If these projections materialize when votes are counted on Friday, it would represent a remarkable political achievement for Nitish Kumar. The outcome would demonstrate that nearly two decades in power, interrupted only by a brief nine-month break, have not diminished his political influence in Bihar.
The potential victory would also provide a significant morale boost for the NDA ahead of crucial state elections scheduled for next year. With the majority mark standing at 122 seats, the NDA appears comfortably positioned to form the government, according to exit poll trends.
The two-thirds majority threshold of 162 seats has been achieved only twice in the past two decades - by the NDA in 2010 with 206 seats, and by the Mahagathbandhan in 2015 when the RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance won 178 seats. In the 2020 elections, the NDA had secured 125 seats while the Mahagathbandhan finished close behind with 110.
The surveys consistently indicated that Prashant Kishor's newly formed Jan Suraaj party is unlikely to make a significant electoral impact, at least in terms of seat share, with most agencies predicting the party might not open its account or win only a handful of seats.
While exit polls in India have produced mixed results historically - accurate in some elections while missing the mark entirely in others - the unanimous projections across agencies suggest a clear trend favoring the incumbent government. Two major polling agencies, Axis My India and Today's Chanakya, are expected to release their projections on Wednesday, providing additional clarity before the final counting on Friday.
