According to a series of exit polls released over the past two days, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is positioned to secure another term in Bihar following the two-phase assembly elections concluded earlier this month.
At least eleven different exit polls have forecast a victory for the NDA, which comprises the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). However, one survey indicates the race could be tighter than others suggest, adding an element of suspense ahead of the official results.
What the Exit Poll Numbers Reveal
The alliance, seeking re-election, leveraged the combined appeal of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's two-decade-long governance in the state and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 11-year leadership at the Centre. In contrast, the opposition Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress party, campaigned on issues of anti-incumbency, alleged misgovernance, and promises of job creation during the polls held on November 6 and 11.
The seat projections from the eleven pollsters present a varied but consistently favorable picture for the NDA:
- Dainik Bhaskar: NDA: 145–160 seats
- Polstrat: NDA: 133–148 seats
- Matrize: NDA: 147–167 seats
- Vote Vibe: NDA: 125-145 seats
- People's Pulse: NDA: 133–159 seats
- People's Insight: NDA: 133-148 seats
- DVC Research: NDA: 137-152 seats
- Axis My India: NDA: 121-141 seats
- Today's Chanakya: NDA: 148-178 seats
- Poll Diary: NDA: 184-209 seats
- JVC: NDA: 135-150 seats
Poll Diary provided the most optimistic forecast for the NDA with 184-209 seats, while Axis My India offered the most conservative projection of 121-141 seats. For the Mahagathbandhan, Axis My India predicted the highest seat count of 98-118, whereas Poll Diary projected a low of 32-49 seats.
Key Trends and Surprising Insights
The overarching takeaway is a clear lead for the incumbent NDA, suggesting it has successfully defied the anti-incumbency sentiment associated with Nitish Kumar's long tenure. Region-wise, the alliance is reportedly performing strongly across most of Bihar, with the exception of the Seemanchal region.
Despite the projected seat advantage for the NDA, a fascinating narrative has emerged regarding leadership popularity. Opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav has been identified as the preferred choice for Chief Minister in several surveys. For instance, Axis My India reported that 34% of respondents favored Yadav, compared to 22% for Nitish Kumar.
Furthermore, the vote-share predictions hint at a more competitive landscape. Axis My India's poll suggests the NDA is expected to secure around 43% of the vote, with the Mahagathbandhan close behind at 41%. This narrow gap indicates a fiercely contested election, even if it does not fully translate into seat gains for the opposition.
A Note of Caution and The Final Verdict
It is crucial to remember that exit polls have a historical record of inaccuracy in Bihar. Their predictions were notably off the mark in both the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections. These surveys, conducted by researchers who collect feedback from voters after they have cast their ballots, are merely indicators and not the final outcome.
All eyes are now on November 14, when the votes will be counted and the official results for the Bihar Elections 2025 will be declared. The political fate of the state, and the validity of these exit poll predictions, will be settled on that day.
Additionally, the debutant Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor, once speculated to be a potential 'kingmaker', is projected by multiple exit polls to win between zero and five seats, a much smaller impact than some had anticipated.
