Bihar Assembly Elections: NDA Poised for Victory According to Exit Polls
The ruling National Democratic Alliance appears positioned to retain power in Bihar, with the latest exit poll projecting them to secure between 121 and 141 seats in the 243-member assembly. The survey conducted by Axis My India and released on November 12 indicates a closely contested battle, with the opposition Mahagathbandhan trailing slightly with an estimated 98 to 118 seats.
The majority mark required to form the government stands at 122 seats, placing the NDA at the threshold of victory. The pollster revealed that the NDA is expected to capture 43 percent of the total vote share, while the MGB follows closely with 41 percent support from voters.
Coalition Dynamics: Seat Distribution Among Allies
Within the NDA coalition, the survey projects Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) to emerge as the dominant partner with 56-62 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party follows closely with an estimated 50-56 seats. Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is predicted to contribute significantly with 11-16 seats to the alliance's total.
On the opposition side, the Rashtriya Janata Dal is forecast to become the single-largest party in the assembly, mirroring its performance in the 2020 polls, with an estimated 67-76 seats. The Congress party is projected to win 17-21 seats, while the CPI (M-L)-L is expected to secure 10-14 seats according to the Axis My India survey.
Election Context and Broader Exit Poll Trends
Most exit polls released on Tuesday, November 11, following the conclusion of the second and final phase of voting, similarly predicted an NDA victory. These surveys projected the ruling alliance could secure between 133 and 167 seats in total. However, it's important to note that exit poll results have frequently been inaccurate in past elections.
The Mahagathbandhan, or Grand Alliance comprising the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, is generally projected to win between 73 and 102 seats across various exit polls. The debutant Jan Suraaj Party led by Prashant Kishor is expected to make a modest impact with 0-5 seats.
The NDA campaigned for re-election emphasizing the combined governance experience of Nitish Kumar's 20-year rule in Bihar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 11-year leadership at the central government. Meanwhile, the opposition alliance focused their campaign on issues of anti-incumbency, alleged misgovernance, and employment generation promises.
The actual election results will be officially declared on November 14, providing definitive answers to the political future of Bihar. Voters and political analysts alike await the final tally with keen interest as Bihar's political landscape continues to evolve.
