Bihar's Political Battle: Caste Mathematics Versus Leadership Appeal
As Bihar awaits the election results, the Mahagathbandhan's ambitious strategy to expand beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote base faces its ultimate test. The seven-party coalition, led by the RJD, has placed its bets on a carefully crafted caste arithmetic while banking on the youthful energy of Tejashwi Yadav to counter Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's vast political experience.
The Caste Calculus: VIP and IIP as Game Changers
The coalition's expansion strategy heavily relied on two key allies: the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) with its Nishad community base and the newly formed Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) claiming support among Tanti-Paans. With EBCs constituting 36.01% of Bihar's population across 113 groups, their votes become decisive in determining the election outcome.
VIP chief Mukesh Sahani, commanding support from approximately 9.6% Nishad or riverine EBCs, made strategic moves that caught political observers' attention. The withdrawal of his brother Santosh Sahani's candidature from Gouraboram Assembly seat in Darbhanga, which has substantial Mallah voters, became a talking point in political circles.
Meanwhile, IIP chief I P Gupta secured three seats in the alliance purely based on potential support from Tanti/Tatma communities. His agenda focused on securing Scheduled Caste status for the 'Paan Samaj,' which comprises about 1.7% of Bihar's population according to the caste survey.
Tejashwi Yadav: The Young Face Versus Experienced Nitish
The Mahagathbandhan gained an early advantage by projecting Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial face, while the NDA hesitated to declare Nitish Kumar as their unanimous choice. This allowed the coalition to frame the contest as a choice between what they called a "jaded" Nitish and the "young and vibrant" Tejashwi.
Tejashwi's campaign centered around his signature promise of providing one government job per family, building on his 2020 pledge of 10 lakh jobs. While some voters viewed this as ambitious, others expressed hope given his track record during his brief tenure in government.
Challenges and Coalition Dynamics
The Mahagathbandhan faced several internal challenges during the campaign. The Congress failed to match the energy of Rahul Gandhi's September Vote Adhikar Yatra, while the Left parties were expected to perform similarly to their 2020 showing of 12 seats.
More significantly, the RJD confronted potential erosion of its Muslim base due to AIMIM's presence and discontent within the community over the coalition's failure to address their issues adequately. The declaration of Sahani as Deputy CM candidate without a similar promise for a Muslim leader didn't sit well with minority voters.
As counting day approaches, the election has boiled down to whether the Mahagathbandhan's carefully constructed caste mathematics can overcome the NDA's broader social coalition that ranges from upper castes to Nitish Kumar's EBC support base and various Dalit groups.
