In a stunning political development, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a massive victory in the Bihar Assembly Elections 2024, setting the stage for a potential historic power shift within the coalition.
NDA's Dominant Performance and BJP's Surge
The NDA alliance is leading on a commanding 202 of the 243 seats in the Bihar legislative assembly, decisively defeating the Mahagathbandhan, which is ahead on only 34 seats. This result has confounded the predictions of nearly all exit polls conducted before the counting began.
Within the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has staged a remarkable performance, emerging as the likely single largest party with leads on 92 seats. The party contested 101 seats, achieving an impressive strike rate of over 92%. Its principal ally, the Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar, is leading on 84 seats from the same number of contested constituencies.
This marks a significant improvement for the BJP compared to the 2020 elections, where it won 74 seats. Historically, the party secured 53 seats in 2015 and 93 seats in 2010. This performance positions the BJP to potentially record its best-ever tally in the state.
The Crucial Question: A BJP Chief Minister for Bihar?
The BJP's position as the largest party in the coalition naturally grants it significant bargaining power regarding the chief minister's post. The majority mark in the assembly is 122 seats.
Mathematically, the BJP, with its 92 seats, can approach the majority mark with support from its other allies—Chirag Paswan's LJP (Ram Vilas) with 19 seats and nine seats from two smaller allies. This combination would bring the tally to 118, just four seats short of the magic number of 122, theoretically reducing absolute dependence on JD(U).
This scenario is a departure from the 2020 elections, where the NDA had pre-announced Nitish Kumar as the chief ministerial candidate. Despite the BJP winning more seats (74) than the JD(U) (43) in that election, Kumar retained the top post.
Why the BJP Might Still Opt for Nitish Kumar
Despite its numerical strength, several factors might lead the BJP to support Nitish Kumar as chief minister again. The party has been a junior coalition partner with the JD(U) for decades in Bihar. While it has strong numbers, it lacks a widely accepted, heavyweight state-level leader with the stature to claim the CM chair.
Nitish Kumar, a nine-time chief minister, offers stability, administrative experience, and a broad social appeal that helps manage Bihar's complex caste equations. For the BJP, supporting him could be a strategically safer move, allowing it to share power without bearing the full responsibility of governance.
Furthermore, pushing for a BJP chief minister could upset the NDA's delicate social coalition and create friction within the alliance, not just in Bihar but also at the central government level, where the JD(U) is a key partner.
The final decision now rests with the elected MLAs, and the political maneuvering in Patna is being closely watched across the nation.
