Prime Minister Narendra Modi has drawn a clear political roadmap following the NDA's decisive victory in the Bihar elections, explicitly linking it to the Bharatiya Janata Party's ambitions in West Bengal. "The river Ganga flows to Bengal via Bihar. And the victory in Bihar, like the river, has paved the way for our victory in Bengal," Modi declared, leaving little doubt about where the BJP sees its next major electoral battlefield.
The Squeeze: Congress's Vanishing Political Space
The Congress party faces its most uncomfortable question as it looks toward the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections: who is its real opponent? The dilemma pits Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, its INDIA bloc partner that allows little political breathing room, against the BJP, whose rapid expansion threatens to erase Congress from Bengal's political map entirely.
The extent of Congress's decline becomes starkly evident when examining its trajectory across the last three assembly elections. In 2011, when Mamata Banerjee ended the Left Front's 34-year rule, Congress remained a meaningful coalition partner, winning 42 seats and maintaining influence across Murshidabad, Malda and North Bengal pockets.
By 2016, despite fighting in alliance with the Left Front, Congress's political health was already deteriorating. While its seat count slightly increased to 44, its vote share and organizational strength showed clear signs of erosion.
The collapse became almost complete in 2021. Congress contested 92 seats but managed to win just 2, finishing third or fourth in nearly every constituency and recording a mere 3% vote share—its weakest performance in Bengal's electoral history. The party was wiped out in former strongholds like Malda Town and Sujapur, where TMC and BJP split the anti-incumbency space between themselves.
BJP's Dramatic Rise in Bengal Politics
The BJP's growth in West Bengal represents one of the most dramatic political expansions of the past decade. In the 2016 assembly elections, the party won only 3 seats, barely registering as a political force.
However, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections delivered a stunning turnaround. The BJP secured 18 out of 42 parliamentary seats from Bengal, immediately repositioning the state as the party's most promising frontier outside the Hindi heartland.
By the 2021 assembly elections, the transformation was complete. The BJP emerged as the state's principal opposition party, capturing 77 seats and securing nearly 38% of the vote share, establishing itself as the only credible challenger to Mamata Banerjee's TMC.
Mamata's Solo Instinct and Alliance Reluctance
Compounding Congress's dilemma is Mamata Banerjee's consistent refusal to treat the party as an equal stakeholder in Bengal politics. Her political instinct has always favored going solo, a position she has reinforced through both words and actions.
In the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Banerjee declared that TMC would contest all 42 seats in Bengal alone, explicitly rejecting seat-sharing arrangements with Congress and stating that the INDIA bloc was "only for Delhi, not Bengal."
The West Bengal Chief Minister has openly expressed dissatisfaction with the INDIA bloc's functioning, suggesting she could lead the alliance if given responsibility. "What can I do if they cannot run the show? I do not lead the front. Those who are in leadership positions there should think about it," Mamata stated, adding, "If given the responsibility, though I do not want that, I can run it from West Bengal."
Earlier this year, Banerjee asserted through TMC's mouthpiece 'Jago Bangla' that her party would return to power with a two-thirds majority in the 2026 assembly elections and ruled out any alliance with Congress. "We do not need anyone's help. We will fight alone and win alone," she told her legislators.
Congress Strongholds That No Longer Exist
Beyond vote share statistics, Congress's decline is most visible in regions it once dominated. In 2016, the party remained a recognizable force in Bengal, with many of its 44 seats concentrated in Malda and Murshidabad districts where TMC struggled to make inroads.
Constituencies like English Bazar, Chanchal, Sujapur, Beldanga, Kandi and Naoda were still considered Congress territory, with functioning booth networks and recognizable local leaders.
By 2021, this political map collapsed almost overnight. Congress won zero seats in Malda and just two in Murshidabad, finishing third or fourth in most constituencies where it once competed strongly. The TMC rapidly filled this vacuum while the BJP simultaneously entered political blocks that neither party had previously controlled.
2026: Fight for Survival Rather Than Victory
All these developments converge into the fundamental question Bengal now poses for Congress: what does the party actually campaign for in 2026? Is it aiming for seats, vote share, or simply survival on the political map?
The numbers leave little room for pretense. The TMC already occupies the incumbent's space, controls the welfare narrative, and shows no intention of alliance. The BJP, buoyed by recent victories in Bihar, Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana, has made significant inroads in Bengal and views the state as winnable.
Congress enters the 2026 electoral battle without a clear state-level leader, weakened organizational network, or defined primary opponent. The real question may no longer be whether Congress should fight Mamata or the BJP, but whether the party has enough political ground left to mount any meaningful fight at all.
