Exit Polls 2026: Key Projections for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry
As the 2026 assembly elections draw near, exit polls have begun to surface, offering a glimpse into the potential outcomes across five key states: West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and the union territory of Puducherry. The projections indicate a mixed bag, with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) showing significant gains in some states while regional parties maintain strongholds in others.
West Bengal: BJP-NDA Poised for Gains
In West Bengal, the exit polls suggest a tight race between the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP-led NDA. The NDA is projected to win 80-90 seats in the 294-member assembly, a substantial increase from its previous tally of 77 seats in 2021. The TMC, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, is expected to retain power with 150-160 seats, down from 213 seats in the last election. The Left Front and Congress alliance is predicted to secure 10-15 seats. The BJP's surge is attributed to its aggressive campaign and anti-incumbency sentiments, though the TMC's grassroots network remains strong.
Tamil Nadu: DMK Maintains Lead
In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance is projected to win 140-150 seats in the 234-member assembly, comfortably ahead of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) alliance, which is expected to secure 50-60 seats. The BJP-led NDA, including its ally Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), is predicted to win 20-25 seats. The DMK's performance is bolstered by its welfare schemes and governance record, while the AIADMK struggles with internal factionalism. The Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) and other smaller parties are expected to win 5-10 seats.
Kerala: LDF vs UDF Battle Intensifies
Kerala presents a close contest between the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition United Democratic Front (UDF). The LDF is projected to win 70-80 seats in the 140-member assembly, while the UDF is expected to secure 55-65 seats. The BJP-led NDA is predicted to win 5-10 seats, a potential improvement from its current single seat. The LDF's performance is driven by its social welfare initiatives, but anti-incumbency and the UDF's strong local campaigns could narrow the gap. The outcome remains uncertain, with both alliances neck-and-neck.
Assam: BJP-NDA Set for Third Term
In Assam, the BJP-led NDA is projected to secure a comfortable majority, winning 75-85 seats in the 126-member assembly. The Congress-led opposition alliance is expected to win 35-45 seats, while the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and other parties may secure 5-10 seats. The NDA's strong performance is attributed to development initiatives and effective governance under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The Congress faces challenges from internal divisions and the AIUDF's influence in minority-dominated areas.
Puducherry: NDA Likely to Retain Power
In Puducherry, the NDA, led by the All India N.R. Congress (AINRC) and BJP, is projected to win 15-18 seats in the 30-member assembly. The DMK-led alliance is expected to win 10-12 seats, while the Congress may secure 2-3 seats. The NDA's governance and development focus are seen as key factors, though local issues could sway votes. The outcome may hinge on voter turnout and last-minute shifts.
Overall Implications
These exit polls, while not final, indicate a strengthening of the BJP's footprint in eastern and northeastern states, while regional parties hold sway in the south. The results, expected in May 2026, will shape national politics ahead of the 2029 general elections. Analysts caution that exit polls are not always accurate, and actual results may differ.
