In a significant political upset, the People's Democratic Party (PDP) has secured victory in the Budgam assembly constituency bypoll, ending the National Conference's uninterrupted hold over the seat since 1977. The defeat represents a major setback for Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who had represented the constituency until recently.
The Battle of the Agas
After 13 rounds of counting on Friday, PDP candidate Aga Muntazir Mehdi established a commanding lead of 4,500 votes over his nearest rival, Aga Syed Mahmood of the National Conference. This marks a dramatic reversal from the September 2024 assembly elections, where Muntazir had lost to Abdullah by a substantial margin of over 18,000 votes.
The bypoll was necessitated after Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who had won both Budgam and his family bastion Ganderbal in the 2024 elections, chose to retain Ganderbal and vacate the Budgam seat. While Abdullah moved to safer ground, the PDP candidate maintained consistent ground presence in the constituency throughout the year.
The BJP also fielded a candidate from the Aga community, Aga Syed Mohsin, though not from the same family as the other two contenders. He managed to secure just over 2,000 votes after 13 rounds, placing him in seventh position.
Internal Rifts and Campaign Strategies
The National Conference's campaign suffered from visible internal divisions, particularly the absence of support from Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, the sitting Srinagar MP and a key political figure in Budgam. Ruhullah, who represented Budgam in the J&K Assembly from 2002 to 2014, publicly criticized the party leadership for failing to deliver on election promises and refused to participate in bypoll campaigning.
This stood in stark contrast to the 2024 elections, where Ruhullah had accompanied Abdullah to every public rally and roadshow. His absence this time significantly weakened the NC's outreach to the constituency's substantial Shia population, where Ruhullah holds considerable influence.
The PDP, meanwhile, executed a well-organized campaign with party president Mehbooba Mufti actively campaigning in Budgam, along with PDP legislators from other regions. The party questioned the NC government's performance over the past year despite having 50 MLAs in the 90-member assembly.
Political Implications and Reactions
For the PDP, which currently holds only three seats in the legislative assembly, the addition of Budgam provides a crucial morale boost to party cadres. The victory demonstrates the party's resilience and capacity to challenge established political strongholds.
During the campaign, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah attempted to frame the contest as a battle against opportunistic politics, accusing the PDP of having "a track record of asking for votes against the BJP and then joining hands with them." In a roadshow three days before the election, Abdullah claimed that all political forces had united to defeat the National Conference "because we are still standing by for the promises we made... to keep the BJP at bay."
However, as his lead solidified, PDP's Aga Muntazir declared the outcome as "a vote for change after many years of NC rule in the constituency, and to take an account of the injustices of these years."
The timing of candidate announcements also played a role in the outcome. While the NC declared its candidate just days before the election, the PDP's Muntazir benefited from nearly a year of continuous groundwork, having maintained his presence in the constituency after the 2024 defeat.
This historic loss for the National Conference in a constituency it has dominated for nearly five decades signals potential challenges for the party and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah's leadership, particularly amid visible internal disagreements and voter dissatisfaction with unfulfilled promises.
