War Reshapes Global Arms Trade: Russia's Exports Collapse, Ukraine Emerges as Top Buyer
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has fundamentally transformed not only Europe's security architecture but also the international weapons market. According to comprehensive new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the war has created two dramatically contrasting outcomes: a severe contraction in Russia's arms exports alongside Ukraine's emergence as the world's leading importer of military equipment.
Global Arms Transfers Increase Amid Conflict
SIPRI's latest analysis of international arms transfers covering the period 2021-2025 reveals that global weapons transfers increased by 9.2% compared to the previous five-year span. This significant rise is primarily attributed to the war in Ukraine and the subsequent rapid military buildup across European nations following Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The data indicates that Ukraine now accounts for a substantial 9.7% of total global arms imports, representing a dramatic escalation from a mere 0.1% share during 2016-2020. Simultaneously, Russia, once positioned as the world's second-largest arms exporter, has experienced a sharp decline in its global market share as sanctions, battlefield demands, and shifting geopolitical alliances continue to reshape defense markets worldwide.
Russia's Arms Exports Experience Steep Decline
SIPRI's detailed report confirms that Russia ranked as the world's third-largest arms supplier during 2021-2025, but its export volumes dropped precipitously. Moscow's share of global arms exports plummeted from 21% in 2016-2020 to just 6.8% in the most recent five-year period, representing a staggering 64% decline. Among the world's top ten arms exporters, Russia was the only nation to record such a severe contraction.
This sharp reduction was largely driven by diminished arms sales to key traditional clients including Algeria, China, and Egypt. The war in Ukraine has placed considerable strain on Russia's defense production capabilities while diverting significant equipment to meet its own military requirements. Additionally, comprehensive Western sanctions and mounting political pressure have further complicated Russia's ability to maintain its previous export levels.
During 2021-2025, Russia supplied major arms to 30 sovereign states and one non-state armed group. Approximately 76% of these exports were directed toward countries in Asia and Oceania. Three nations accounted for nearly three-quarters of Russian arms exports during this timeframe:
- India received 48% of Russian exports
- China accounted for 13%
- Belarus represented 13%
However, Russia's future export pipeline appears considerably weaker compared to its primary competitors. SIPRI analysts noted that the number of pending Russian arms export orders is substantially lower than those of the United States and France, currently the world's two largest arms suppliers, and also trails several other nations within the top ten exporters.
Ukraine Emerges as World's Leading Arms Importer
While Russia's export position has weakened significantly, Ukraine has become the single largest recipient of major arms globally. SIPRI's comprehensive data demonstrates that Ukraine was the largest arms importer in both Europe and the world during 2021-2025. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, at least 36 countries have supplied major weapons systems to Kyiv.
The United States has served as the dominant supplier, accounting for 41% of Ukraine's arms imports. Germany followed with 14%, while Poland supplied approximately 9.4% of Ukraine's military equipment.
Western military assistance has fundamentally transformed global arms flows. Substantial quantities of advanced weaponry, including sophisticated air-defense systems, precision missiles, armored vehicles, and heavy artillery, have been transferred to Ukraine to strengthen its defensive capabilities against Russian forces.
However, the volume of arms transfers to Ukraine declined in 2025 compared to the previous two years. SIPRI attributes this reduction primarily to decreased US military aid during that specific year. Despite this temporary slowdown, numerous European nations, along with Australia and Canada, continued to deliver significant military support and pledged additional assistance for coming years.
Furthermore, at least 25 countries agreed in 2025 to purchase weapons from the United States specifically for transfer to Ukraine. These weapons, including guided bombs and air-defense missiles, are recorded in SIPRI's database as US arms exports to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia itself imported a minimal share of global arms during the same period, accounting for just 0.4% of total imports. These limited imports included one-way attack drones and other missile systems from Iran, along with artillery and missiles from North Korea.
European Military Buildup Accelerates Rapidly
The conflict has also triggered a broader military buildup across Europe. SIPRI reports that arms imports by European NATO member states surged by an extraordinary 143% between 2016-2020 and 2021-2025 as governments urgently sought to strengthen their defensive capabilities.
More than half of these imports, approximately 58%, originated from the United States. The volume of US arms transfers to European NATO countries more than doubled during this five-year period.
Poland emerged as the largest importer among European NATO states, accounting for 17% of their combined arms imports. Polish imports were more than nine times higher than during the previous five-year period, driven largely by substantial purchases from South Korea and the United States.
The SIPRI data underscores how the Ukraine conflict has created profound and lasting shifts in global defense markets, with Russia's traditional export dominance eroding while Ukraine's import requirements reshape international arms flows and European nations significantly accelerate their military modernization efforts.
