The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) overwhelming victories in a series of assembly elections, capped by its maiden win in West Bengal with over two-thirds of the seats, along with its growing numbers in the Rajya Sabha, are set to allow the party to dictate terms in the upcoming presidential election next year. This comes after its loss of majority in the Lok Sabha polls had raised questions about its dominant run since 2014.
Electoral College Dynamics
The BJP's dominant position in assemblies of key states, including Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Bihar—which together hold the highest weight in the presidential electoral college after Uttar Pradesh—will effectively neutralize the setback it suffered in the Lok Sabha, where its tally dropped from 303 to 240 in 2024. The electoral college comprises all elected members of Parliament and state assemblies, excluding nominated lawmakers. Parliament and assemblies have equal voting shares, but while each MP's vote value is uniform (700 in 2022), an MLA's vote weight varies based on the population of their constituency, as per the 1971 census.
For instance, a UP MLA's vote value of 208 is nearly 30 times that of a Sikkim MLA's value of 7, as per 2022 figures. These values are expected to remain largely unchanged for the next election, as the census data and assembly strengths are fixed, barring vacancies. The potential restoration of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly, dissolved in 2018 and absent from the last presidential poll, could be a minor factor.
Impact of Lok Sabha Losses
The decline in the BJP's Lok Sabha tally reduced its votes by 44,100 in the electoral college, which had a total strength of 10,86,431 in 2022. A poor performance in assembly polls could have compromised the party's ability to set the agenda, even with allies, as has been the case for previous governments when the leading party fell short of a majority.
Following the Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP relied on the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United) to reach the 272-seat majority mark, the opposition quickly labeled these regional parties as the BJP's "crutches" for survival. They predicted the government would soon collapse, claiming the results marked a turning point in the BJP's strong run since 2014.
BJP's Current Strength
Two years later, the BJP is in a comfortable position. It won Haryana decisively against expectations. In the 288-member Maharashtra assembly, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) strength has surged to 237 from over 150 during the last presidential polls. In the 243-member Bihar assembly, it has risen to 202 from 125. In West Bengal, the BJP now has 207 MLAs, compared to 77 previously.
Looking ahead to the presidential election in July 2025, Uttar Pradesh remains the most crucial state due to its massive weight of over 83,800 votes in the electoral college. The BJP's strong showing in state polls ensures it will have significant influence in selecting the next president.
