The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has downgraded its southwest monsoon outlook to 90% of the long-period average, indicating a below-normal rainfall season. The revised forecast, issued on 29 May 2026, predicts deficient precipitation in three out of four meteorological regions: northwest India, central India, and the southern peninsula. Only the northeast region is expected to receive normal rainfall.
Below-Normal Rainfall in Monsoon Core Zone
The IMD also highlighted that the monsoon core zone, which encompasses most of the rain-fed agricultural areas in central, eastern, and western India, will experience below-normal rainfall. This zone is critical for the kharif crop season, and a shortfall could impact agricultural output and rural livelihoods.
Regional Breakdown
- Northwest India: Below-normal rainfall predicted.
- Central India: Below-normal rainfall predicted.
- Southern Peninsula: Below-normal rainfall predicted.
- Northeast India: Normal rainfall expected.
The downgrade from the earlier forecast of 96% to 90% reflects evolving climatic conditions, including the likely development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The IMD has advised farmers to plan accordingly and states to prepare for potential water scarcity in rain-fed regions.
Kalyan Ray reported this story, last updated on 29 May 2026 at 13:20 IST. The IMD continues to monitor the situation and will issue updates as the monsoon progresses.
