Kerala's 2024 Elections: A Stark Contrast to the 1991 Gulf War Campaign Focus
As Kerala heads to the polling booths in 2024, the state finds itself against the backdrop of another escalating conflict in the Middle East. However, in a significant departure from historical precedent, mainstream political parties are exhibiting a marked reluctance to focus on the consequences of this war, unlike their approach during the Gulf War of 1991.
The 1991 Blueprint: CPM's Pro-Saddam Campaign and Electoral Triumph
The current war's impact is being felt across much wider dimensions, crippling fuel supplies and raising serious questions about the safety and security of millions of Keralites working across several nations, not just in Kuwait as was largely the case in 1991. Back then, the Communist Party of India (Marxist)'s iconic leader, EMS Namboothiripad, made the Gulf War a central campaign focus during the district council elections.
His captivating slogan, "We are with Saddam (Hussein), are you?" resonated powerfully. Many contemporary voters in Kerala might be surprised to learn how a war occurring thousands of kilometres away became a pivotal election issue. Some CPM insiders at the time expressed doubts about the benefits of adopting a pro-Saddam tagline as the campaign's cornerstone.
Their primary concern was whether the thousands of Keralites residing in Kuwait and their families back home would turn hostile towards the CPM. Nevertheless, EMS Namboothiripad remained steadfast in his position, asserting that the anti-imperialist, specifically anti-US, sentiment was profoundly strong in Kerala and that a pro-Saddam stance would undoubtedly yield electoral dividends.
This strategic gamble proved remarkably successful. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) secured a landslide victory, winning 13 out of the 14 district councils in Kerala. The pro-Saddam postures played a crucial role in this triumph, particularly in the northern districts of the state.
Expert Analysis: Beyond Anti-US Sentiment
However, experts like former Chief Secretary S M Vijayanand argue that an anti-US stance was not the sole factor behind the LDF's sweeping victory. "The government in power then, led by E K Nayanar, had a clean image and was very popular. This contributed significantly to the LDF victory, at least in the southern districts," Vijayanand noted, providing a more nuanced perspective on the 1991 electoral outcome.
2024: A Calculated Silence on the Middle East Conflict
Despite the critical impact the Middle East situation can have on the political climate of remittance-dependent Kerala, leaders of mainstream parties appear apprehensive about making the US-Israel tensions with Iran a campaign issue in the current election cycle. The present conflict presents a far more complex scenario, especially after Iran initiated attacks on most Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, where millions of Keralites are employed.
Adopting a vehement pro-Iran stand could potentially alienate at least some of the migrant Malayali workers in the Gulf, turning them against the political parties that take such a position. This risk is a significant deterrent in the current geopolitical landscape.
Internal Shifts in Kerala's Political Landscape
Experts point out that several internal changes within Kerala are also restraining parties from adopting an aggressive foreign policy stance during this election. "Like elsewhere, the rising middle-class sections in Kerala have no qualms about publicly expressing their support for Israel or even the United States. The anti-imperialist trend in Kerala has drastically waned compared to 1991," explained a Left thinker.
The political analyst further elaborated on the evolving dynamics: "There is a significant shift happening in the politics of Kerala towards the Right, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) now able to muster at least 15% of the vote in the state. Parties engaged in electoral politics seem to be devising strategies to reconcile with these changes rather than confronting them. Consequently, they are choosing to sideline the war from poll debates, focusing instead on domestic issues and local governance."
This strategic recalibration highlights how Kerala's political discourse has evolved over three decades, moving from a time when international conflicts could define local elections to an era where complex domestic and demographic realities take precedence in campaign strategies.
