The tragic and untimely demise of Maharashtra's Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar in a devastating plane crash on Wednesday has sent shockwaves through the state's political landscape, creating an unprecedented vacuum in the BJP-led coalition government. As the state's longest-serving deputy chief minister, Ajit Pawar's absence leaves a gaping hole that will be difficult to fill, fundamentally altering Maharashtra's political dynamics for the foreseeable future.
The Unfillable Void in Maharashtra Politics
Throughout his extensive political career spanning decades, Ajit Pawar remained one of Maharashtra's most formidable power centers, maintaining his influence irrespective of which government held power in the state. His sudden departure has not only disrupted the current administration but has cast a long, dark shadow over the future trajectory of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), which he had come to personify in recent years.
NCP's Looming Leadership Crisis
With Pawar's tragic death, the NCP faces an immediate and severe leadership crisis that threatens its very survival. Political observers unanimously agree that there are no obvious successors capable of filling Pawar's substantial shoes, with no clear second-in-command emerging from the party's ranks. The absence of a mass-based leader with statewide grassroots appeal creates a dangerous power vacuum within the organization.
Senior journalist Prakash Akolkar provided crucial insights to news agency PTI, noting that both NCP factions had been contesting the February 5 Zilla Parishad elections together using the 'clock' symbol, effectively signaling what many interpreted as an unofficial merger process already underway. "The question is no longer about who merges with whom," Akolkar emphasized. "With only two Opposition parties remaining—Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT)—the political landscape has fundamentally shifted, and it remains uncertain whether the Congress can revive itself in this new environment."
The Sharad Pawar Equation
Ajit Pawar's death occurred amid intense speculation within Maharashtra's political circles about a potential reconciliation with his uncle, veteran politician Sharad Pawar. Multiple sources indicated that Ajit Pawar had been seriously considering merging the fractured NCP factions and returning to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, a move that would have dramatically reshaped state politics.
The NCP had suffered a major split in 2023 when Ajit Pawar, accompanied by numerous senior leaders, broke away from the party led by his uncle Sharad Pawar and joined the BJP-Shiv Sena coalition government in Maharashtra. This schism created deep divisions within what was once a unified political force.
Political Maneuvering and Speculation
Just last week, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut had publicly expressed hope that Ajit Pawar would merge his faction with Sharad Pawar's NCP. "Though Ajit Pawar is part of the Mahayuti alliance, he remains connected with the MVA," Raut had stated optimistically. "Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar will reunite as part of the MVA. Ajit Pawar cannot sit on two stools indefinitely."
Now, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis faces the challenging task of ensuring that the 41 MLAs previously aligned with Ajit Pawar do not drift back toward Sharad Pawar's faction, a development that could destabilize the current coalition government.
Succession Challenges Within NCP
Beyond state NCP president Sunil Tatkare and national working president Praful Patel, the party lacks senior leaders with the political heft to succeed Ajit Pawar. The only other mass-based leader, Chhagan Bhujbal—who was recently acquitted in a high-profile money laundering case—is currently unwell and unavailable to assume leadership responsibilities.
While both Patel and Tatkare have been crucial organizational figures within the party, neither possesses the statewide grassroots connection and political instinct that Ajit Pawar commanded throughout his career. This deficiency creates significant challenges for the party's future electoral prospects and organizational stability.
Sunetra Pawar: The Unexpected Focus
Attention has unexpectedly turned toward Ajit Pawar's wife, Sunetra Pawar, who currently serves as a Rajya Sabha MP. Married to Ajit Pawar since 1985, Sunetra has long been known as the "Pawar family bahu" but maintained a relatively low public profile for most of her life until her dramatic political debut in 2024.
In a remarkable family confrontation, Sunetra contested the Baramati Lok Sabha seat against her sister-in-law Supriya Sule, Sharad Pawar's daughter. Despite a spirited campaign, Sunetra lost to Sule by a substantial margin of over 1.5 lakh votes, highlighting both her political inexperience and the complex family dynamics at play.
Recent Electoral Performance
During the recently concluded local bodies and civic elections, while NCP founder Sharad Pawar maintained distance from the public glare, his daughter Supriya Sule campaigned extensively for party candidates. However, political observers noted that she was no match for her cousin Ajit Pawar, who conducted a vigorous statewide campaign that demonstrated his unparalleled political reach.
In the ruling Mahayuti alliance, which secured a massive mandate in the 2024 assembly elections, the BJP commands 132 MLAs, followed by Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena with 57 legislators, and Pawar's NCP faction with 41 members.
Civic Polls Reveal Political Realities
The recently concluded civic polls in Maharashtra provided crucial insights into the shifting political landscape. The NCP, which contested separately from its Mahayuti allies, managed to secure 167 seats across 29 municipal corporations. However, the party suffered a significant setback when it was defeated by the BJP on its traditional home ground of Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad.
In these crucial urban centers, Ajit Pawar's faction had aligned with Sharad Pawar's NCP (SP), which managed to win only 36 seats across the entire state, highlighting the challenges facing both factions in the absence of their most charismatic leader.
Last month's elections to 246 municipal councils and 42 nagar panchayats further illustrated the political dynamics, with the NCP winning 966 seats and NCP (SP) securing 256 out of the total 6,851 contested positions. These results underscore the fragmented nature of Maharashtra's political landscape in the post-Ajit Pawar era.
The sudden departure of Ajit Pawar has created multiple uncertainties that will take months, if not years, to resolve. From leadership succession within the NCP to potential realignments in Maharashtra's coalition politics, the state faces a period of political turbulence that will test the resilience of all major political players.
